Cowboys at Vikings: Three story lines, two key matchups, one prediction

When: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, U.S. Bank Stadium
TV (radio): Ch. 11 (100.3-FM)
Line: Vikings by 3

The status of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott's calf injury has swung the betting line in the Vikings' favor, and even if Prescott is able to play, the Vikings' pass rush could change the game if he has a hard time eluding Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter. If Cooper Rush plays, the Vikings should win comfortably; if Prescott is less than 100 percent, Minnesota will do just enough to prevail in a shootout.

THREE STORY LINES

Tough stretch begins with prime-time showdown
The Vikings' next four opponents (the Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers and Packers) have a combined record of 21-6; they'll begin the stretch with a Halloween night game against Dallas that should create one of the more electric atmospheres at U.S. Bank Stadium this season. This will be just the fourth Sunday night game the Vikings have hosted since opening U.S. Bank Stadium on NBC against the Packers in 2016; it is their first home game in the league's marquee time slot since 2018.

All eyes on Prescott's calf
The Cowboys began the week as 2 1/2-point favorites, but are underdogs now thanks to questions about whether Prescott will play through his calf injury. Especially if he is able to play, the Vikings will face a difficult assignment against a Dallas offense that leads the league in both points and yards; receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper could make things difficult for the Vikings' secondary without Patrick Peterson.

Diggs brings interception streak to Minnesota
Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs has intercepted passes in six straight games, tying him with former Vikings safety Brian Russell (in 2003) for the longest streak of consecutive games with an interception to open a season. Diggs has seven picks for the season, and could take a shot at one of the NFL's oldest records: Dick "Night Train" Lane's single-season mark of 14 interceptions from 1950. But as former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs' younger brother comes to U.S. Bank Stadium, Minnesota will try to make him pay for gambling against Justin Jefferson.

TWO KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings CB Bashaud Breeland vs. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
Lamb is averaging 15.1 yards per catch this season; he'll test the Vikings' defense downfield, and has the size (6-2, 189 pounds) to provide a tough matchupa. Cooper will test Cameron Dantzler on the other side, as well, but containing Lamb might be the toughest challenge for the Vikings' secondary on Sunday night.

Vikings DE Everson Griffen vs. Cowboys LT Tyron Smith
Smith has dealt with neck and ankle injuries this season, but is expected to be ready for Sunday night. He's in the middle of another stellar season, and will try to slow down Griffen, who has four sacks in his last four games and has returned to a starting role at right defensive end for the Vikings.

ONE STAT THAT MATTERS

57%: The Cowboys' success rate — or how often they gain a significant percentage of the yards needed for a first down — when dropping back to pass this season. That rate is the best in the NFL this season.

THE VIKINGS WILL WIN IF …

Prescott sits — or the Vikings can score enough points to match a Cowboys offense that hasn't been held under 35 points since Week 2. They'll have to avoid the fumbles that have cropped up at inopportune times this season and keep Dallas from controlling the game with Ezekiel Elliott against a Vikings run defense that will be without Michael Pierce again on Sunday.

THE COWBOYS WILL WIN IF …

Prescott is on the field, and gets enough time to work against a Vikings defense betting on its pass rush to help out its secondary, while Elliott runs effectively against the Minnesota front and Dallas' offense can be better in the red zone than it has so far this season. This game could come down to whichever team can turn one more drive into a touchdown, and the Cowboys' 56 percent conversion rate in the red zone might need to improve.

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cowboys 27