Railing against establishment, Dean Phillips finds an audience in New Hampshire. But is it too late?

NASHUA, N.H. — Dean Phillips is growing more defiant by the day.

In his stern but polite Midwestern tone, the Minnesota congressman tells voters in this proudly independent state that the Democratic establishment is working against him and them. Top Democrats nationally have chided Phillips for daring to challenge President Joe Biden, and the Democratic National Committee has told New Hampshire voters their Tuesday presidential primary election won’t count because the state is holding its contest earlier than allowed.

Crowds of voters braved the cold to hear from Phillips at Dartmouth College one night, at a Concord coffee shop the next and at a Nashua senior center on Saturday — his 55th birthday. Many shared Phillips’ concerns about Biden — that he’s too old, too unpopular to beat Donald Trump a second time — and lashed out at the DNC for rendering New Hampshire’s primary election symbolic.

“My wife worries about [Biden’s] age. My friends on the book club worry about his age,” said Tom Stawasz, 78, a former history teacher from Nashua who said he can’t fathom someone his age or older serving as commander in chief.

Phillips is tapping into concerns about Biden’s age and broader discontent with the political system in hopes New Hampshire voters will turn his presidential campaign from a long shot into a contender. Though Phillips won’t win any presidential delegates, a victory or strong showing on Tuesday would force Democrats to reckon with the president’s electability.

New Hampshire might be Phillips’ best and only chance to change the party’s direction. Siding with the DNC, Biden considers the state’s primary election illegitimate and has chosen not to appear on its ballot, leaving an opening for his challengers. The president’s supporters have organized a campaign encouraging voters here to write in Biden’s name on their ballots, hoping to help him avoid the embarrassment of another Democrat winning the state.

“To me, the pressure is on Phillips, not on Joe Biden. Joe Biden is going to be the nominee,” said Kathy Sullivan, a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair who’s helping lead the write-in Biden campaign.

“This is a state that’s known for supporting insurgent candidates. … It’s tailor-made for a candidate who’s trying to upset the applecart,” Sullivan said. “If he can’t do that, he has nowhere to go after this. It’s over.”

A few dozen supporters of the write-in campaign rallied Saturday across the street from Phillips’ campaign office in Manchester, waving signs and chanting, “Who do we want? Biden!”

Within a few minutes, Phillips walked over and offered them hot coffee while his campaign staff trailed behind him chanting, “Dean!”

When speaking to voters, Phillips counters the Biden write-in campaign with a sharp message: “If he wrote you off, why would you write him in?”

It’s unclear how much traction Phillips has gained in the Granite State over the past few months. Some polls of New Hampshire voters have pegged Phillips’ support at below 10%; a more recent survey found his support at 28% to Biden’s 58%.

Nearly two weeks ago, Phillips couldn’t get a single voter to show up for an outdoor coffee-and-conversations event. But in the past few days, he has drawn crowds of more than 100 people.

Phillips said more donations have flowed to his campaign over the past couple weeks, too. A multimillionaire and heir to the Phillips liquor fortune, he said he’s already invested $5 million of his own money into his campaign.

This month, Phillips got a financial boost from billionaire Bill Ackman, who said he would donate $1 million to a political action committee (PAC) supporting the Minnesotan’s campaign. On the campaign trail, Phillips stresses that he was the only member of Congress to not accept PAC money, even though his presidential campaign now benefits from it.

After Ackman’s donation, Phillips was criticized for seemingly removing language about diversity, equity and inclusion from his campaign website at the hedge fund manager’s urging. Critics accused the congressman of shifting his principles at a donor’s request — a notion he rejects.

“It just concerns me that you have someone who doesn’t seem to have fixed beliefs and fixed principles and is willing to change them so quickly out of his personal self-interest,” Sullivan said. “What’s the next thing he will be willing to change his positions on?”

About 100 people, some coming from neighboring Vermont and Rhode Island, attended a Phillips rally Thursday at Dartmouth College in Hanover. Inside the Hanover Inn, his campaign lined the packed room with signs declaring “Dean Phillips for president” and “Medicare for All.”

Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang co-led the rally and endorsed Phillips. Seeking to broadly please the crowd, Yang praised the Minnesotan as the right choice for moderate Republicans and progressive Democrats. He said Phillips is the best candidate to help pass Medicare for All, a policy the congressman endorsed only recently after previously opposing it.

But in the crowd, Tuna Akmehmet was skeptical. The Dartmouth student said he asked Phillips about his health care platform during a past visit and his answer didn’t include Medicare for All.

“I’m not sure if he would do anything about it,” Akmehmet said.

Phillips has adopted some progressive values over the past couple months after previously being more moderate. He said he supports Medicare for All, a federal minimum wage of $15 per hour and a universal basic income program in which the federal government would regularly send cash payments to families in need.

“I have become in some ways more progressive and in other ways more conservative,” Phillips said in an interview. He added that he’s among the few Democrats willing to say loudly that the southern border is a “risk to our national security” and must be fortified.

At the Dartmouth rally, Phillips vowed to “eviscerate” Trump and then “invite” his followers to support him. Republicans, including the former president whom he said he detests, have taken note of Phillips’ campaign.

“He might beat Biden. Wouldn’t that be nice?” Trump said with a laugh Saturday night at a campaign rally in Manchester. “I think Democrats should vote for the congressman.”

In a Walmart parking lot in Concord on Friday, Cyndi and Scott Shell posed for photos in front of an RV decked out with Trump memorabilia. They, too, knew of Phillips’ campaign and said they respect him for challenging Biden.

Phillips has tempered his expectations about how he’ll fare in New Hampshire.

His campaign once set a target of winning 42% of the primary vote — the same total that former Minnesota U.S. Sen. Eugene McCarthy earned when he challenged President Lyndon B. Johnson in New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary half a century ago. McCarthy’s strong second-place finish was among the factors that led Johnson to end his re-election campaign.

Now, Phillips says he’d be thrilled to win more than 20% support.

“If I get below 10%, of course it makes the path more difficult. If we’re in the twenties or higher, I think it actually might be the springboard,” he said. “This is the place that makes or break incumbents and insurgents.”

Most of all, Phillips said, Tuesday’s results will show voters and the Democratic establishment that Biden “is simply too weak to win re-election.”

Regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire, his campaign plans to compete in the next primaries in South Carolina and Michigan. He won’t be on the ballot in Nevada, which follows South Carolina and comes before Michigan, because he missed the state’s filing deadline.

On Saturday, Phillips rankled Democrats by reversing course on another position. After previously telling the New York Times it would be a “historic disaster” if Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin ran as an independent or third-party candidate, Phillips said he would consider doing so himself if he loses the nomination to Biden.

“I intend to earn the nomination of my party and win the presidency this November,” Phillips told the Star Tribune. “Only if the Democratic National Committee prevents a competition and proceeds with a coronation of an unelectable candidate would I consider alternative strategies.”