Declining flu plus level COVID-19 equals temporary relief for Minnesota hospitals

Flu-related hospitalizations declined for a third straight week in Minnesota, increasing hope that this year's influenza season is just early — rather than historically bad.

The decline, along with little-changed COVID-19 levels in Minnesota, offered temporary relief to hospitals with limited bed space and overcrowded emergency departments, according to Thursday's state pandemic and influenza reports.

Patients filled more than 8,000 inpatient hospital beds in Minnesota on 19 dates since Nov. 1. But the state hasn't reached that benchmark for overcrowding since Dec. 16, and reported an aggregate census of only 7,006 hospital patients on Tuesday.

Health officials discouraged overconfidence, because infections often spread over Christmas and New Years — and second, albeit milder, waves of flu are typical each winter.

Minnesota has identified about 800 new coronavirus infections per day since August, avoiding a wintertime surge of COVID-19. However, that level of persistence means that COVID-19 isn't going away, and could fall into a seasonal endemic pattern over time, said Kathy Como-Sabetti, a manager in MDH's COVID epidemiology section.

"We don't know the pattern yet, but I do think we are living with too much COVID," she said. "It's a little disheartening that we've kind of settled into this high plateau. We don't want to be complacent. There is room to do better — to live with less COVID even if we have to live with it."

Widespread outbreaks in China right now also could produce variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, which eventually could present new threats in the U.S. Como-Sabetti encouraged people to seek recommended COVID-19 vaccinations and boost their immunity levels against infection.

While more than 4 million Minnesotans have received at least some COVID-19 vaccine, only 22% of the state's eligible population is considered up to date with recommended shots and boosters.

Less than 59% of the state's senior citizens are up to date, even though they are at greatest risk — making up 158 of the 170 COVID-19 deaths identified in Minnesota since Nov. 26. The state has averaged seven to eight COVID-19 deaths per day over the past two months, an increase from four to five per day this summer.

The elderly also remain at greatest risk of flu-related complications. The median age of Minnesota's 91 flu-related deaths so far this season is 81.

The flu season usually surges in Minnesota each January, but appears to have peaked this year in November. Flu-like outbreaks in long-term care facilities declined — from 18 two weeks ago to 11 last week.

Outbreaks in K-12 schools had been declining before the holiday break, along with the spread of RSV — a common virus that can be particularly risky for infants and preschool-age children. The roughly 50 RSV-related hospitalizations in the Twin Cities last week compared to nearly 200 per week in mid-November.

The RSV season also started unusually early this year. Health officials suspect that people avoided flu and RSV the last two years — largely through mask-wearing and social distancing practices during the pandemic. That left people with less immune protection and more susceptibility this year, when many of the pandemic protections were no longer in effect.