Democrats have history on their side heading into U.S. Senate race but GOP seeks to rewrite it

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Sen. Tina Smith’s U.S. Senate seat wasn’t supposed to have drawn much fanfare heading into 2026. Reelections typically favor incumbents and Republicans haven’t won statewide since 2006. Both parties had their sights set on U.S. Senate races in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and elsewhere.

But Smith’s retirement announcement unexpectedly put Minnesota on the political map. Her absence will force Democrats to defend a seat they’ve held since Norm Coleman, Minnesota’s last Republican senator, left it in 2009. It also has Republicans giving it a serious look.

“In this environment, where there are a limited number of pickup opportunities, I anticipate that this will be a contested race, and that both sides will have to significantly invest,” Coleman said. “This is not a gimme anymore.”

Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan was the first big name Democrat to enter the race. Reps. Angie Craig and Ilhan Omar, as well as Attorney General Keith Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon are all weighing bids. David Wellstone, the son of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, also hasn’t ruled out a run. Gov. Tim Walz, though, ruled out a run this past week.

Democrats are feeling good about their chances heading into a midterm election that could serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s return to office. But they’re leaving nothing to chance.

“I don’t think we can be cocky about our past record,” said former DFL executive director Corey Day. “We have not lost in some time, but we also just experienced losing the House, the Senate, the presidency, and so I don’t think we can be arrogant or cocky about the prospects of having a very challenging general election.”

Though Republicans haven’t won statewide in awhile, they believe the right candidate and support from Washington could help them pull off a win. The GOP Senate campaign arm says Smith’s seat is in play.

Candidates from both sides will have to work their way through what could be a contentious party endorsement battle if the field grows. The process hasn’t always determined the statewide winner, and it has paved the way for more partisan candidates to win.

Propelled by grassroots conservatives, far right Republican Royce White won his party’s endorsement overwhelmingly last year when he ran for U.S. Senate against Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

However, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, or NRSC, repeatedly dismissed White and refused to support him even after he won the primary.

White currently is one of the only candidates in the race with retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who has been planning a bid for the last three years.

But many other Republicans could join the field, a list that includes retired sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya; state Sens. Julia Coleman, R-Waconia, who’s former Sen. Coleman’s daughter-in-law, and Karin Housley of Stillwater; and state Rep. Kristin Robbins.

Coleman, Robbins and Schwarze were all members of former presidential candidate Nikki Haley’s Minnesota leadership team and Tafoya has described herself as “pro-choice.” So it’s unclear how each possible candidate will be received by grassroots conservative activists and Trump, if he weighs endorsing in the race. Coleman and Robbins both supported Trump after the primary and Schwarze now fully supports Trump and his agenda.

“The big question is, can they win the convention? Or will the convention deadlock over candidates that get no endorsement, [leading to a race] that goes to a primary, which might be the best hope for a lot of these people,” former GOP gubernatorial candidate Marty Seifert said.

White’s 2024 showing against Klobuchar -- he lost by nearly 500,000 votes -- has some party leaders worried he could hurt their chances if he wins the endorsement again. Getting support in Washington, D.C., is crucial this time around, they say.

“If we don’t get our act together ... [the NRSC] will decide Minnesota’s a lost cause,” former GOP Rep. Vin Weber said.

The state Republican Party’s new chairman Alex Plechash is standing by the party’s endorsement process and says he’s working to get the party ready to run a formidable campaign.

So far, Minnesota’s highest ranking Republican, Rep. Tom Emmer, passed on making a run, so has Rep. Pete Stauber, who was seen as a strong candidate by Republicans. It’s unclear if Reps. Michelle Fischbach and Brad Finstad will join the race, but if all steer clear, some think it could be indicative of Republicans’ chances.

“Almost two years before the election is going to take place, the folks that would historically be considered the strongest candidates, sitting members of Congress, have all said they won’t do it practically,” former DFL Chair Mike Erlandson said.

Most of the sitting elected officials considering bids also will have to decide whether they risk running for Senate and possibly having too little time to run for re-election to their current seats.

But with nearly two years to go till the race, University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs cautions there’s still many unknowns between now and November 2026.

“The likelihood that Donald Trump is going to be unpopular, perhaps significantly unpopular, by the time the midterm elections roll around is real,” Jacobs said.

One Republican who isn’t sold on a GOP comeback is former Rep. Jason Lewis, who won Trump’s backing in his 2020 Senate run against Smith and lost by just five points.

“It’s just very, very difficult to get anyone excited about Minnesota,” Lewis said, who says he got no help from Washington during his bid.

“Until the powers that be step up and start raising money for Republicans, it’s not as shiny an object as people think it is,” Lewis said, speaking of the state Republican Party and national Republican groups.

Minnesota Star Tribune reporter Briana Bierschbach contributed to this report.