Opinion editor's note: Star Tribune Opinion publishes a mix of national and local commentaries online and in print each day. To contribute, click here.
Dems haunted by ghosts of wounded incumbents past
Tread carefully because we've seen this play out before, with two very different results.
By Steven Schier
October 28, 2023 at 11:00PM
•••
There's an eerie familiarity about American politics in 2023. That's because it echoes the U.S. politics of 1968 and 1979.
In 1968, a Minnesota Democrat in Congress challenged a sitting Democratic president who sought re-nomination. That Democrat, Eugene McCarthy, won 42% of the vote in the March 12 New Hampshire primary to President Lyndon Johnson's 48%. On March 31, Johnson withdrew from the race.
In 2023, congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota has announced his candidacy for president, challenging incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden. Will another New Hampshire surprise cause Biden to withdraw from the nomination contest?
In 1968, Johnson's withdrawal prompted Robert F. Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey, Johnson's vice president, to enter the nomination contest. Robert F. Kennedy junior has already entered the 2024 presidential race and he is now running as an independent.
In 1968, opposition to the Vietnam War prompted McCarthy's candidacy. In 2023, Biden's age motivates Phillip's insurgency. The age issue may prove as insurmountable for Biden as Vietnam was for Johnson. Several recent polls show most Democrats think Biden is too old to serve a second term.
Also besetting Biden are numerous difficulties resonant of Democratic President Jimmy Carter's unpleasant year of 1979.
That year Carter faced high inflation and widespread economic discontent, a newly aggressive Russia invading Afghanistan, a hostage crisis with Iran and mounting concerns about presidential competence.
In 2023, Biden faces inflation and widespread economic discontent, a newly aggressive Russian invading Ukraine, a hostage crisis with Iranian-backed Hamas and mounting concerns about presidential competence. Add the massive influx of migration across the southern border Mexico disrupting U.S. cities and exploding federal deficits and debt.
In both 1968 and 1979, the ensuing national election did not work out well for the Democrats. Johnson's vice president Humphrey lost narrowly to Richard Nixon and Carter lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan.
When we examine today's Republican Party, however, the 1968 and 1979 comparisons break down. Nixon and Reagan each led a unified party and faced no major legal problems during their presidential turns (that came later, at least for Nixon).
Donald Trump in contrast leads a party so internally divided their U.S. House majority needed weeks on end to even elect a speaker. A hardened faction of "Never Trumpers" castigates him on a regular basis. His legal problems are legion, resulting in four prosecutions, any one of which might derail his candidacy.
And neither Nixon nor Reagan, for all their flaws, displayed Trump's relentless public belligerence.
If the 1968 script plays out in 2024, Phillips will force Biden from the race, bringing in additional Democratic candidates — perhaps California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris.
If the 1979 script repeats itself, accumulating national problems will propel the GOP presidential nominee — even if it's Trump — into the White House.
Both 1968 and 1979 were times of deep popular discontent and national division. Recent surveys put popular support of American governing institutions and the media at record lows.
That makes a return to one of those old scripts more likely. Democrats beware.
Steven Schier is the Emeritus Congdon Professor of Political Science at Carleton College in Northfield.
about the writer
Steven Schier
I’ve been studying Minnesota’s involvement since the 1990s.
