The seduction of "what-if" questions are inherent in their mystery. Take any outcome that is known, turn it on its side by wondering "what if" something else happened instead, and then let the mind wander with endless possibilities but zero concrete answers.
Sports Illustrated published recently a well-done example of such a thing, commemorating the three-year anniversary of Johan Santana's no-hitter — the first in Mets history, breaking a half-century drought — with a look back at a fateful game that meant so much to fans and Santana himself but might have contributed to the injuries that have derailed his career since then.
At the heart of the piece are two fundamental questions: did Santana, who threw 134 pitches in finishing off the no-no, overexert himself to the point that he did irreparable damage? And even if he knew that to be true, would Santana (and his manager at the time, Terry Collins) do anything differently?
We are in an era obsessed with pitch counts. When a starting pitcher approaches 100 pitches, we are conditioned to think his night is about to end. If he gets past 110, it feels lavish. Past 125? Downright rare.
Here's a look at the history of the past 25 years, divided into five-year chunks, looking at how many times a starting pitcher has thrown at least 125 pitches. It's been done exactly once so far in 2015; last year it happened 17 times. Back in the early 1990s, it happened hundreds of times a year.
What we don't know is whether there is any clear link between pitch counts and injuries. Tommy John surgeries are on the rise as pitch counts fall, but pitchers these days also put all sorts of strain on their ligaments and tendons with blazing fastballs and exploding breaking pitches.
What we do know is this: a no-hitter creates a peculiar storm of adrenaline and high pitch counts that could be damaging to a hurler — particularly one not conditioned to throw so many pitches.
Four of the 50 starts of at least 125 pitches in the previous three seasons came during no-hitters, and three of those four pitchers — Santana, Josh Beckett and Matt Cain – struggled with injuries, ineffectiveness or both in the aftermath. Here's a look at the last 11 no-hitters thrown by one pitcher, starting with Santana in 2012.
