Difficulties Predicting Wildfire Smoke

A few T-storms later today may become severe, with large hail, damaging winds and a stray tornado. Otherwise I see more warm sunshine Thursday into the Monday with 80s giving way 90F by Sunday and Monday. T-storms may rumble in on the 4th of July, but it's way too early for details. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

June 28, 2023 at 2:30AM
(@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat on Wednesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. A Slight Risk (in yellow) indicates a level 2 out of 5 for the potential of isolated large hail and damaging wind events from near the Twin Cities into southeastern Minnesota and into Western Wisconsin.

Severe Threat on Wednesday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from AM Wednesday to Midday Thursday shows scattered showers and storms in place during the morning hours of Wednesday and thunderstorms redeveloping in the afternoon hours of Wednesday. Some of the storms PM Wednesday could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Simulated Radar From AM Wednesday to Midday Thursday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

Pockets of heavy rainfall can't be ruled out across parts of the state. Some locations could see up to 1" or more, mainly north and east of the Twin Cities.

Precipitation Potential Through AM Friday (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Current Burning Restrictions

Thanks to several days of hot and extremely dry weather, there remains a burning restriction across northeastern Minnesota. There are also some burning restrictions across the southern half of the state and into eastern Minnesota.

Current Burning Restrictions (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding. Severe drought conditions have popped up across parts of central Minnesota with moderate drought now in place across parts of the Twin Cities.

MN Drought Monitor (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly

The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -6.00" below average (in red) since mid May. This is where drought conditions are expanding.

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

4th Driest May 1st - June 26th on Record at MSP

There has only been 2.54" of rain at the MSP Airport since May 1st, which is the 4th driest May 1st - June 26th on record. The driest such stretch was back in 1988, when only 1.92" of rain fell.

Precipitation Departure Since May 1st (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, June 28th shows chances of showers and thunderstorms moving through the region, some of which could be strong to severe with hail and gusty winds in the afternoon.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Wednesday shows temps starting in the upper 60s in the morning with highs warming to near 80F by the afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will take us through the day with some of the storms a little on the strong to severe side later in the day. Southerly winds will be breezy with some 20mph gusts possible.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

Temps across the region on Wednesday will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be close to average for this time of the year. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temperatures for the Twin Cities will continue to remain at or slightly above average for this time of the year with readings in the mid to upper 80s.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Stickier Dewpoints Linger Early This Week

Dewpoints will remain sticky through the rest of the week with readings into the low/mid 60s. It won't be quite as sticky this weekend with readings down into the lower 60s.

Daily Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities won't be quite as hot as it through much of June. However, we'll still be a little above average through the last few days of June and into July. Isolated thunder chances linger into Thursday before drying out again this weekend. Isolated storm chances return into early next week once again.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows above average temperatures continuing into early July. The hottest days over the next several move in during early July with readings in the lower 90s.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Midwest will be a little unsettled through midweek before drying out a little this weekend. The extended outlook shows slightly more unsettled weather across parts of the region as we slide into the early part of July.

Weather Outlook Through This Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across the Great Lakes, Northeast and across the Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the Central US and possibly even across the Midwest. Fingers crossed that we see more rain chances.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Difficulties Predicting Wildfire Smoke
By Paul Douglas

"Man plans. God laughs" is still my favorite proverb. I planned on tracking angry thunderstorms in June, not dirty ribbons of wildfire smoke.

Yesterday the Twin Cities had the second worst air quality of any major city on the planet, second only to Chicago. From fires that resulted from an historic May Canadian heatwave, and lightning igniting hundreds of fires.

Predicting tornadoes is difficult (we have a good idea when conditions are ripe). Snowfall down to the inch? Good luck with that. Smoke? Ugh. NOAA's smoke models go out 21 hours. Beyond that the smoke outlook is a random, chaotic and nebulous shade of dirty-gray.

A few T-storms later today may become severe, with large hail, damaging winds and a stray tornado. Otherwise I see more warm sunshine Thursday into the Monday with 80s giving way 90F by Sunday and Monday. T-storms may rumble in on the 4th of July, but it's way too early for details. Smoke? Your guess is as good as mine. My hunch: the rest of the summer will be partly smoky and hot.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Strong to severe T-storms. Winds: S 10-15. High: 82.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Chance of storms overnight. Winds: W 5-10. Low: 67.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and warm. Winds: NW 8-13. High 86.

FRIDAY: Sunny spells. The lake beckons. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High 87.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 88.

SUNDAY: Ditto. Sunny and hot. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 89.

MONDAY: Hazy-blue sky. Stinking hot. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up. 69. High: 91.

TUESDAY: Unsettled, few T-storms possible. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 71. High 87.

This Day in Weather History

June 28th

1876: The latest ice breakup in history for Duluth occurs on Lake Superior.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

June 28th

Average High: 82F (Record: 102F set in 1931)

Average Low: 64F (Record: 47F set in 1895 & 1924)

Record Rainfall: 2.33" set in 1920

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For June 28th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

June 28th

Sunrise: 5:29am

Sunset: 9:03pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 34 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 29 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 minutes

Moon Phase for June 28th at Midnight

4.2 Days Until Full "Buck" Moon

July 3 at 6:39 a.m. CDT - The Full Buck Moon, when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes also called the Full Hay Moon.

Moon Phase For June 28th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will be well above average across the Central and Southern US, where a number of excessive heat concerns are in place and where a number of record highs will be likely through the week ahead.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will be a little unsettled across parts of the Central US and across the northern tier of the nation, where some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday shows unsettled weather across the northern tier of the nation, where some isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along with some locally heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US, from the Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and into the Northern New England States

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extreme heat will cost the US $1 billion in health care costs — this summer alone

High temperatures could lead to 235,000 ER visits and 56,000 hospital admissions for heat-related conditions annually. Extreme heat — summertime temperatures and humidity that exceed the historical average — is being made more frequent and intense by climate change. In the first two weeks of June, a late-spring hot spell prompted schools in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes areas to close or send students home early. A heat wave broke temperature records in Puerto Rico — the heat index, a measure of how temperatures feel to the human body, reached 125 degrees Fahrenheit on parts of the island. And extreme heat spurred deadly storms and power outages for hundreds of thousands of customers from Texas to Louisiana.

"Europe warming twice as fast as other continents, according to new climate report"

The State of the Climate in Europe 2022 report produced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reveals how decades of warming is taking a major human, economic and environmental toll in Europe. Since the 1980s, Europe has warmed at a rate of 0.5°C per decade, more than twice the global average and making it the fastest warming of the regions the WMO assess. As temperatures soared across the continent in 2022, sea surface warming reached new highs, glacier melt was unprecedented, and Europe experienced its hottest summer ever recorded.

"Why Texas Could Be As Hot As The Sahara Desert This Week"

They say everything is bigger in Texas, but the stunning June heat records in recent weeks are quite worrisome. In a tweet this weekend, the National Weather Service office in San Angelo, Texas said, "San Angelo topped out at 112°, which smashed the previous record of 105° set back in 1994. It's hard to believe that just a week ago, 112° would've been our all-time record high and now it's just another day of 110° heat to add to the count." The state is experiencing a third week of record heat and is likely to experience heat comparable to the Sahara Desert, one of the hottest places on Earth. Here's why.

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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