Divide over historic climate bill animates closely-watched Minnesota congressional campaigns

WASHINGTON - Minnesota Democrats facing competitive races are counting on a massive new climate package to help their political chances as they brace for GOP opposition this fall.

"This bill is going to really motivate young voters across the nation," said Democratic U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, who's in a tough re-election battle in the swing Second Congressional District. "We've delivered on the single biggest bill to address climate change in the history of our country."

Craig's Republican opponent, Tyler Kistner, said he would have voted against the package. Kistner, who has been outraised significantly by Craig this cycle, said she "gave me a blessing in voting for something like this."

"Most Americans are concerned with the economy, inflation and crime in this district," Kistner said. "They're not overly concerned with the climate right now."

Republicans have seized on how Democrats are paying for the package in the GOP's push to retake the majority in this fall's midterms. The law is fast becoming the latest dividing line among candidates in an election season that, if historical precedents hold, is expected to favor Republicans. In the weeks before the passage of the landmark legislation, Democratic President Joe Biden's approval ratings were low as he contended with high gas prices and congressional inaction by his own party.

In addition to the roughly $373 billion in climate spending, the law sets a 15% minimum tax on some high-profit corporations and counts among its health measures a move allowing the government to negotiate some drug prices for Medicare recipients.

Other parts include a 1% tax for corporation stock buybacks and $80 billion for the Internal Revenue Service, according to details on the Democrat-led Joint Economic Committee website.

The IRS piece and what it could mean for taxpayers has drawn fierce GOP ire. Kistner charged the law will mean "invasive audits" and won't help lower inflation.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a letter earlier this month that "contrary to the misinformation from opponents of this legislation, small business or households earning $400,000 per year or less will not see an increase in the chances that they are audited."

While the Craig vs. Kistner match-up is Minnesota's marquee swing district race, suburban Third District Democratic U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips continues to be targeted by the House GOP's campaign arm as he seeks a third term.

"I'm a representative focused most importantly on problem solving," Phillips said before voting for the bill. "And this package solves a lot of problems."

His Republican challenger, Tom Weiler, derides Phillips' support for the law as out of touch, but declined in an interview to say how he would have voted on the legislation. The latest campaign finance records show Phillips has over three times more campaign cash than Weiler.

"Clearly a billion-dollar company should pay taxes," Weiler said, pointing to a corporate tax portion of the law. "It's just doing that while you're in a recession, that sort of violates Econ 101, so the timing is not good."

But it's not only Republicans who are using the law to contrast themselves with their opponents.

One of Republican U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad's first votes in Congress was opposing the bill after winning a closer than expected special election race in southern Minnesota earlier this month against former Hormel Foods CEO Jeff Ettinger. The two are on the ballot again this fall to see who will represent the slightly redrawn First District for a full term.

In a brief hallway interview, Finstad criticized the scope of the estimated $740 billion bill. When asked about the climate aspect, he lamented that "when it's thrown into ... the big pot that we have in front of us it's hard to even get your hands around."

Ettinger, who would have voted for the bill, said its passage helps dispel the Republican attack that Democrats aren't accomplishing anything in the majority.

"When you couple this with the common sense bipartisan gun legislation that did pass at the federal level, I think that we will be able to talk to voters about things that are getting done," Ettinger said.

The law, which got no GOP votes, follows a series of bipartisan agreements on infrastructure, guns, semiconductors and help for military veterans.

What's known as the Inflation Reduction Act is far smaller than an expansive agenda some Democrats envisioned during Biden's first year in office. But it is expected to help reduce the federal deficit while also extending health insurance subsidies.

The University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model found in a recent analysis that "the act would have no meaningful effect on inflation in the near term," while also adding that "most, but not all, of the tax increases fall on higher income households."

"However, future generations, including higher-income households, gain from the improved economy, including a reduction in carbon emissions," the report said.

But as the midterms approach, the law is competing for voters' attention with concerns over the economy, the health of American democracy, former President Donald Trump, abortion and Biden's own leadership as president. The act's impact is also likely to take time to be felt.

"What we're really going to get is a war of messaging here," said Todd Belt, a professor and political management program director at George Washington University. "And obviously the Democrats are trying to have their victory lap and the Republicans are trying to hold them at bay."