Was the forecast wrong because the atmosphere is chaotic, random and inherently hard to predict? Or because of recent cuts at NOAA and the National Weather Service? Yes.
We still get it wrong, but forecast accuracy has been steadily improving, and despite increasing climate-fueled weather disasters, America’s death toll from extreme weather has been falling.
To be able to predict the weather you need to load weather models with current data, up to an altitude 7 to 12 miles. NOAA launches weather balloons twice a day, but recent staffing cuts mean 11 US weather balloon sites have been suspended or degraded to only one daily launch. It’s like doing a jigsaw puzzle with pieces missing. Junk in, junk out. The forecast will suffer. It has many meteorologists nervous about what comes next.
Sunshine and 40s on Saturday give way to rain Saturday night and Sunday, maybe a few inches of slush up north. Models hint at 60s or 70s at the end of next week.
Hey, it’s late March. We could be butt-deep in drifts. No complaints.
