Douglas: Perhaps plowable, but not Snowmageddon

The less it snows, the more we obsess about it. “Paul, I know the storm is a week away but please tell me exactly how much snow will fall on my yard? And should I bet on the Eagles?”

Just because we want to know doesn’t mean the science allows us to know. Weather models go out 15 days. Accuracy rates and confidence levels go up a day or two before snow arrives, as fresher, more accurate data initializes the models. But relying on a one-week snowfall prediction to make decisions is suboptimal. Weather forecasts are slowly improving, but they will never be perfect.

All that said, about 2 to 3 inches of fluff will fall on the metro Saturday, with a band of 4 to 5+ inches over central Minnesota. Plowable in many spots, and because de-icing doesn’t work nearly as well at 20F, roads will be slick. Snowmageddon? Not even close.

Next week? Subzero nights — too cold to snow (much). On the cusp of polar-vortex cold. Storms will detour south of Minnesota, but at some point we’ll be in the right place at the right time for heavy snow. Stay safe.