I’m confident the sun will come up tomorrow. Everything else is very much up in the air. Especially tomorrow’s weather. In the same way cigarettes come with a warning label, weather forecasts should come with a “confidence level.”
When models all agree and when solutions are consistent from run to run, our confidence level is high. Sadly, that rarely happens. The trick, the “art,” is knowing which model to believe when, or when to ignore weather models altogether and go with our gut. Then again, meteorologists already hit you with a lot of numbers, so maybe that’s too much to ask.
High confidence the sun will be out Monday with highs near 50 degrees. Moderate confidence we’ll see 60s by the end of this week. Low confidence we’ll have to grapple with a mix of rain and ice on Sunday, but it’s too early for specifics.
Also, ECMWF (European) guidance hints at 60s, maybe 70 the first week of April.
Memories of snowy Aprils are still fresh in my mind, but we may just salvage an early spring this year. Low confidence.
