Kyle Gibson figures to pitch an inning for the American League in Tuesday's All-Star Game at Coors Field, vindication not only for the veteran righthander but also for members of the Twins' scouting department: They were right about him.
Yet Gibson, drafted with the Twins' first pick, 22nd overall, is also a timely and glaring reminder of how difficult it is to forecast the future of any amateur player, and particularly pitchers. Because while his rise to the top of his profession reflects well on those who scouted, drafted and signed him, it's also true that he's a rarity among Twins draftees.
Of the 56 amateur players that the Twins have chosen with their first pick in all previous summer drafts, 18 have been pitchers. Gibson is only the second such choice ever to be selected an All-Star, and neither he nor the previous highly decorated pick — righthander Dick Ruthven, chosen out of Fresno State in 1972 — represented the Twins when they were honored. Ruthven didn't even sign with Minnesota.
That's why, when the Twins exercise the 26th overall pick in Sunday's later-than-usual amateur draft, it's a good bet that the draftee will be a position player with a highly bankable bat. It's a good bet because it's a better gamble.
"The way we look at it is, it's about opportunity cost. You can take pitching in the first round, but you're missing out on those bats — the [Alex] Kirilloffs, the [Trevor] Larnachs, the [Michael] Cuddyers, [to] go way back," said Sean Johnson, in his 20th season scouting players for the Twins, and his fifth in charge of drafting them. "I mean, those guys aren't available in the second round. They're just not."
That's not to say that teams should never take a pitcher in the first round. But the risk is far higher because pitching development is far more difficult to project than hitting, as the Twins know too well. Since choosing Gibson in 2009, the Twins have used their first selection on a pitcher three times, and regretted it each time:
• Alex Wimmers was drafted with the 21st pick in 2010, and while he eventually reached Target Field for a 22-game career with the Twins six years later, future MVP Christian Yelich went to the Marlins two picks later. Pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Taijuan Walker, both All-Stars, were also selected shortly afterward.
• Armed with the fourth overall pick and a $4.5 million bonus, the Twins talked Kohl Stewart into forgoing a quarterbacking career at Texas A&M in 2013, but they let him depart in 2019 after just 17 big-league games. Shortstop and batting champion Tim Anderson and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge went later in the round.
