Dropping Temperatures Thursday, But A Warm Up In Store For The Weekend

While it'll be a mainly sunny day in the Twin Cities on Thursday, I can't rule out a few flurries during the morning hours as a clipper moves through. Unfortunately, the clipper that brings that light snow chance ushers in another batch of cold air, and after morning/midday highs in the low/mid-teens, temperatures will drop through the afternoon hours.

We will watch the chance of a few lingering flurries in the early morning hours across northern and central Minnesota with the clipper moving through. You can see the next blast of cold air moving into the state behind it, as highs will be near the teens below zero in northwestern parts of the state, but temperatures farther south will be dropping during the day.

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As we head into Friday, the next blast of cold Canadian air fully settles into the region, with highs only expected to reach the single digits under a mix of sun and clouds.

The good news is that this cold blast doesn't last long. Winds switch to be out of the southerly direction late Friday into the weekend, helping to start kicking some warmer weather back in. Under breezy conditions, highs look to reach the low/mid-30s on both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks to feature a little bit more sunshine than Saturday.

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Looking back at January (now that we're in the month of February), it was a warm and snowy month for sure here in the metro. The average temperature of 20.2F was 4F degrees above average despite the end-of-the-month cold blast. This ends up as the 27th warmest January in MSP history. It was the ninth snowiest with 22.3" of snow (with about 15" of that falling during the snowstorm at the beginning of the month) and the seventh wettest.

It was quite a snowy month across at least central Minnesota, with climate sites in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities 9-12" above average. In comparison, International Falls only saw 9.7" of snow - 6" below average

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Ignore The Groundhog. Count On 6+ Weeks of Winter
By Paul Douglas

Just remember it's not a groundhog prediction. It's a hairy hostage standoff. Poor Phil just wants to be left alone, but Punxetawney city elders will trot him out again today, and odds favor (gasp) he will see his shadow, meaning a). Phil is self-aware, and b). 6 more weeks of nonsense.

According to NOAA data, a groundhog in Punxetawney has been making predictions since 1887. Since then he has called for 6 more weeks of winter on 105 years, an early spring 20 winters, and no record 10 times. Because Phil is a fairly unreliable giant rodent. Rather defensively, NOAA goes on to point out that over the last 10 years Phil has been right 40% of the time. Ouch.

I'm confident Minnesota and Wisconsin will enjoy at least 6 more weeks of winter again this year, no matter what the groundhog says. A fleeting pang of arctic air turns up the wind today with double-digit negative numbers Friday morning. But Pacific-flavored air arrives this weekend with 30s into next week. I consulted with Phil and he reluctantly agrees.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Sunny, turning colder. Wake up 7. High 10. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY: Numbing start. Clouds, less wind. Wake up -14 High 4. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Patchy clouds, feeling better. Wake up 2. High 28. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Some sunshine, almost pleasant. Wake up 25. High 30. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy, passing rain shower? Wake up 23. High 35. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, still above average. Wake up 23. High 36. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Leftover clouds, quiet. Wake up 22. High 33. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 2nd

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 50 minutes, and 30 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 36 seconds

*When do we see 10 Hours of Daylight?: February 6th (10 hours, 1 minute, 13 seconds)
*When is Sunrise at/before 7:00 AM?: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 5:30 PM?: February 8th (5:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
February 2nd

1996: The all-time state record low temperature is set in Minnesota. With numerous media folk present, the low dips to -60 three miles south of Tower. Governor Arne Carlson cancelled school statewide due to the cold.

1988: The temperature bottoms out at -43 at Embarrass.

1927: Spring-like temperatures are felt on Groundhog Day. Tracy is 57 and Fairmont reaches 56.

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The system that has been affecting the southern United States continues on Thursday, with icing concerns from Texas to the Tennessee Valley and storms south of that in the warm sector across the lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South. Lake effect snow will be possible downwind of the Great Lakes. Rainy weather will be possible along the west coast from the Pacific Northwest to the Bay Area.

An additional 1-3" of rain could fall through the end of the week across the Southeastern United States as the system that has been impacting the region continues and finally starts to move out. The heaviest snow across the lower 48 will be due to lake-effect snow as the Great Lakes remain fairly ice-free, with 6-12" of snow possible.

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California floated cutting major Southwest cities off Colorado River water before touching its agriculture supply, sources say

More from CNN: "In a closed-door negotiation last week over the fate of the Colorado River, representatives from California's powerful water districts proposed modeling what the basin's future would look like if some of the West's biggest cities – including Phoenix and Las Vegas – were cut off from the river's water supply, three people familiar with the talks told CNN. More than 5 million people in Arizona are served by Colorado River water, which accounts for 40% of Phoenix's supply. Around 90% of Las Vegas' water is from the river. The proposal came in a session between states that was focused on achieving unprecedented water cuts to save the Colorado River – a system that overall provides water and electricity to more than 40 million people in the West. For months, seven states have been trying to come up with cuts to keep the river system from crashing."

Minnesota's greenhouse gas emissions show steep drop

More from the Star Tribune: "Minnesota could hit its climate targets for the first time, thanks to a steep drop in greenhouse gas pollution. Global warming emissions in the state dropped 23% from 2005 through 2020, according to the latest inventory out Tuesday. The pandemic-related economic slowdown explains part of the decline, but not all, pollution officials said. Certain sectors such as transportation were showing downward trends before COVID, they said."

Clean energy is cheaper than coal across the whole US, study finds

More from Canary Media: "Years of analysis have made it clear that replacing most of the coal plants in the United States with a mix of solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries can save billions of dollars and prevent air pollution while fighting climate change. Now, with Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and federal financing on the table, the coal-to-clean transition is not just more cost-effective than ever before — it can also be accomplished by building clean energy close to retiring coal plants. So says the latest Coal Cost Crossover report from think tank Energy Innovation. The report finds that all but one of the country's 210 coal plants could be shut down and replaced with clean energy and batteries at a net savings to energy consumers, up from 72 percent of coal plants as of Energy Innovation's last such analysis in 2021."

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- D.J. Kayser