Dry, sunny and warm today, with a touch of smoke

Is a late-day instability thunderstorm more likely over the downtowns than over Elk River, Lakeville or Windom? August 2023′s damaging hailstorm hit south Minneapolis very hard — a billion-dollar weather disaster.

On Wednesday. the only severe storm that bubbled up formed over downtown Minneapolis, sparking hail and power outages. Coincidence? Maybe not.

The “urban heat island” is real. Asphalt retains heat, and the downtowns can be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than farmland on a hot, summer day. Those few degrees can be enough to focus lift, turning warm, rising thermals into towering thunderheads. Fluke or trend? We’ll see, but I increasingly think it’s not a coincidence.

We’ll see a dry, sunny sky today with a touch of wildfire smoke. The leading edge of 90-degree air sparks more storms over the weekend, and a few may be severe on Saturday. A “comfortable front” returns by the middle of next week.

Las Vegas just hit 118 F in the shade. Friends say it’s a “dry heat.” So is my oven, but I don’t stick my head inside.