Early Morning Sprinkle Sunday? Highs In The 50s Continue

It's been a week of weather whiplash here in the metro - going from three days of record highs from Saturday to Monday (including the warmest October day on record last Sunday) to below average highs at the end of it. It is now certainly feeling a bit more like fall and October!

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A good chunk of northern Minnesota is near or past peak, with most of the rest of the state at least 25-50% turned according to the latest update from the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder. The weather (windy and rainy) is definitely taking a toll on some of the leaves across the state - and frosty weather will help that continue over the next several days. Interstate State Park reported on Friday that, "The park is currently a mix of still-green trees and bare trees among muted patches of pale yellows, oranges and browns. Recent wind and rain continues to drop leaves. Most of the brightly colored sugar maple leaves have fallen. A second wave of more subtle fall colors may happen in another week as oak leaves turn rusty brown and red and silver maples near the river turn a pale gold."

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It was a chilly start to Saturday across the state, with many areas dipping into the 30s and even some locations in the 20s. If this temperature is correct, the coldest low I could find across Minnesota wasn't in the northern parts of the state - it was a station north of Pipestone along Pipestone Creek which dropped to 24F.

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As we head into Sunday here in the metro, I can't rule out an early morning shower or sprinkle left over from a slight chance of rain Saturday Night. Otherwise, I expect to see many fall-looking clouds across the metro to finish off the weekend - but there should be peeks of sun (especially during the afternoon). Morning temperatures start off slightly warmer than Saturday morning (but just barely) in the mid-40s with highs in the mid-50s.

The most sunshine across the state on Sunday will be in western portions of Minnesota, with more clouds than the sun the farther east you go and into western Wisconsin. A few morning showers could also be possible in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Highs range from the upper 40s in parts of northern Minnesota to around 60F in southwestern portions of the state.

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Monday: For the Monday holiday, temperatures will be slightly cooler than Sunday with more sun than clouds (though some clouds will certainly be around). Morning temperatures in the metro start off in the upper 30s with highs in the low 50s.

Tuesday: The coolest morning out of the next several is expected in the metro as lows approach the mid-30s - so it might be a morning that even in the heart of the metro you'll have to cover up (or bring inside) any outdoor plants to prevent frost. Another "more sun than clouds" day is expected with highs climbing into the 50s.

Below average highs will continue over the next week here in the metro, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 50s each day - definitely fall-like (finally!). After a few mornings in the 30s early in the week, lows will climb back into the 40s in the metro. There's a chance we could see a few showers late in the week depending on how close a system to our south gets to us - something we'll keep an eye on to see what happens.

Frosty mornings are expected once again early next week, and many areas could see a season freeze - especially Monday Night.

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Taylor Swift Should Have A Good Hair Day
By Paul Douglas

Yes, a stalled storm over eastern Canada will keep us chilly and dry this week. But let's start with the question on nearly everyone's mind: how will today's weather impact Taylor Swift at today's Vikings-Chiefs game?

I am diligently tracking Taylor on Super-Turbo-Doppler and I am pleased to report a dry sky and cool 50s for today's game at U.S. Bank Stadium. I do NOT expect a bad hair day for Ms. Swift.

Now, on to other lesser weather-matters. Once again weather systems are in a holding pattern, one that will keep Minnesota cooler than average this week with highs in the 50s. The metro area should remain largely frost-free, but nights will be chilly with a few 30s in the outlying suburbs.

In spite of torrential rains in late September, much of Minnesota is still experiencing severe to extreme drought. Any relief? Models spin up a possible storm by Friday, but it's premature for specifics.

PS: Dear Taylor, if you're reading this (doubtful), we hope you enjoy your brief stay in Minnesota!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. Wake up 45. High 56. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Wake up 39. High 55. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Plenty of sun. Jacket weather. Wake up 40. High 57. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: More clouds, a cool breeze. Wake up 42. High 58. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Wake up 44. High 57. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Raw. Potential for steady rain. Wake up 45. High 49. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind N 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and chilly. Wake up 45. High 53. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 8th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 21 minutes, and 15 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Sunlight? October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 51 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:30 AM? October 17th (7:31 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 6:30 PM? October 14th (6:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
October 8th

1949: A record-setting 3.17 inches of rain falls at Eau Claire.

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Heavy rain will continue on Sunday in the Northeast as the system in place merges with what is left of post-tropical cyclone Philippe. Showers and even a few early mixed-in snowflakes will also be possible across the Great Lakes. A few storms could occur in southern Florida and the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, a system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring rain chances in mainly late in the day to the overnight hours.

Rainfall amounts of 3-6" are expected to cause flash flooding in parts of New England as we head through the end of the weekend.

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Hurricanes arriving earlier due to climate change

More from the University of Hawaii: "Intense tropical cyclones are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the world due to torrential rains, flooding, destructive winds, and coastal storm surges. New research co-authored by a University of Hawai'i at Mānoa atmospheric scientist revealed that since the 1980s, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes (maximum wind speed greater than 131 miles per hour) have been arriving three to four days earlier with each passing decade of climate change. Their findings were published recently in Nature. "When intense tropical cyclones occur earlier than usual, they cause unexpected problems for communities," said Pao-Shin Chu, atmospheric sciences professor in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology and Hawai'i State Climatologist. "Moreover, the earlier advance of these storms will overlap with other weather systems, for example local thunderstorms or seasonal summer monsoon rainfall, and can produce compounding extreme events and strain the emergency response.""

How to build a heat-resilient city

More from Grist: "Cities are hot. When you cover the ground with asphalt and concrete, jam millions of cars together on congested streets, and erect thousands of buildings that leak their own heat, you create what experts call an "urban heat island." Daytime temperatures in these places can be as much as 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than surrounding rural areas, and things don't get much cooler at night. As climate change fuels a succession of historic heat waves, the urban heat island effect in many American cities is pushing the limits of human survivability. That's the case in desert cities like Phoenix, where temperatures crested 110 degrees F for 30 straight days this summer, and also in cooler climes like Chicago, which has seen a series of scalding triple-digit weeks over the past few months. Dealing with this type of heat requires more than isolated interventions — reflective roofs here or mist machines there. Rather, the crisis of the past summer has shown that most American urban centers will need to consider a revamp from the ground up."

What are the 'greenest' US cities?

More from Smart Cities Dive: "San Diego is the "greenest," or most environmentally sustainable, city in the United States, according to a report released Wednesday by personal finance company WalletHub. Following the California city are Honolulu; Portland, Oregon; Washington, D.C.; and Seattle as the five greenest U.S. cities. The report looks at how the nation's 100 most-populous cities compare across 28 key "green" indicators, including per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, green space, walking and biking scores, and whether or not the city has banned disposable plastic bags. "A well-run city is likely to also be a reasonably green city," said Braden Allenby, an environmental scientist and Arizona State University professor, in an expert statement in the report. Green investment can make cities more livable, he said, but it must be done strategically to avoid eroding public support for green initiatives."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser