Expect clearer air this summer in Minnesota, thanks to a milder wildfire season

Canadian forests are expected to be much kinder to Minnesotans’ lungs this summer.

Warm and dry conditions in Canada may cause a few more smoky days than normal in the state. But air quality should be far better than it was last year, when raging fires prompted a record 21 alerts for hazardous air across Minnesota, state forecasters said Thursday.

Meteorologists expect parts of Minnesota and most of Canada to go through drought this spring and summer. Elevated temperatures in those areas could cause more wildfires than usual, sending smoke billowing across the state, said Matt Taraldsen, lead meteorologist at the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

“At this point last year we already had fires raging in Canada and parts of the Arctic Circle were above 90 degrees Fahrenheit,” Taraldsen said. “We’re not seeing that this summer and we have increasing confidence that this season is not going to be as catastrophic.”

Taraldsen released the forecast at the state’s emergency operation center in St. Paul, flanked by Gov. Tim Walz and Katrina Kessler, commissioner of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

Walz said that as extreme wildfires become more common in a changing climate, the state needs to prepare for poor air quality days each spring. He encouraged Minnesotans to pay attention to air quality alerts, which offer real-time updates when dangerous levels of soot, fine particles, ozone and other pollutants are present.

“If you have kids with asthma or if you yourself have it you know that last summer was brutal,” he said. “And unfortunately it’s something that we’re going to have to deal with going forward because of the nature of the unpredictable climate that were seeing.”

Minnesota typically issues five to seven air quality alerts a year, almost always due to wildfire smoke. Given the conditions, forecasters believe the state will likely need to issue at least seven alerts by the end of the summer, Taraldsen said.

“The early fire season has been quiet but it’s not something we can let our guard down on,” he said. “In June, if there’s a dry period and if the drought expands we know that will fuel more wildfires and more smoke.”

Last year, the state was covered with dangerous wildfire smoke for a total of 52 days, as fires burned tens of thousands of square miles of woods across Canada.

The rainy start to spring has pulled much of Minnesota out of a lingering drought that lasted nearly all of last year and into a relatively snowless winter. Northern Minnesota and the southeastern corner of the state are still in moderate drought, according to the updated drought map released Thursday.