Falling prices of corn and soybeans begin to align with demand outlook

Chicago corn and soybean futures have covered a wide range of prices so far this month in volatile trade as market participants bounce their focus among weather forecasts, global recession fears and geopolitical tensions.

U.S. corn and soybean supplies over the next year are seen as mostly steady versus the current below-average levels, but much of that is yet to be determined by the next several weeks of weather.

December corn so far in July has averaged $6.01 per bushel and November soybeans $13.63, in the lower end of the month's ranges, and perhaps appropriately so given the projected balance sheets.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday updated its supply and demand outlooks, which for domestic corn and soybeans showed ending stocks a bit heavier than trade estimates.

Corn stocks-to-use for the upcoming 2022-23 marketing year of 10.1% is down from 10.2% this year but up from last month's peg of 9.6%. This reflects a tighter-than-usual situation as the ratio averaged 12% in the last decade.

A year ago, USDA predicted 2021-22 corn stocks-to-use at 9.6%, and futures only modestly strengthened throughout July from the $5.45 per bushel average in the first seven sessions of the month.

In 2012, an early July average for December corn of $7.01 coincided with a stocks-to-use forecast of 9.3%, but traders knew this number was certainly headed downward due to the severe drought that had developed by mid-July, and that notion was correct.

Comparisons to 2012 surfaced last month, which turned out to be the second-driest June in the Midwest in the last 30 years with just 64% of normal rainfall. That was behind 2012 of course, but this month has drastically separated itself from the drought year already.

Ample rains moved across a good portion of the Corn Belt within the last week, rescuing some parched crops from last month's deficit.

U.S. soybean stocks-to-use for 2022-23 is pegged at 5.1%, down from 6.1% predicted last month but up from 4.8% in the current year. The 10-year average of 8% is propped up by the heavy 2018-19 season.

USDA's statistics service this month is resurveying area in the Dakotas and Minnesota because of delayed planting in those states, but Tuesday's forecast did not reflect any of that possible new information. Related updates will be published on Aug. 12, if necessary.

Braun is a market analyst with Reuters.