2024′s polarizing election cycle ended with Minnesotans favoring Vice President Kamala Harris for president and re-electing Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar. While those statewide results support the state’s reputation for favoring Democrats, a county-level analysis of several key races since 2012 challenges the notion that Minnesota voters choose person over party at the voting booth.
Trump-Klobuchar counties are vanishing, and show dwindling split-ticket voting
As outstate counties shifted right in 2024, moderate bastions numbered fewer than in past election cycles.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 14, 2024 at 3:09PM
Only 12 counties in 2024 saw the majority of their voters cast split-ticket ballots for president and U.S. Senate. That’s down from 57 counties in 2012, suggesting the gradual disappearance of the moderate, bipartisan voter.
The charts below visualize this trend across three major election cycles by plotting the margins of victory for top ballot races against the corresponding Senate contest by county. Counties in yellow voted for different-party candidates for U.S. Senate and either president or governor.
In 2024, pronounced division
Even as Minnesotans overall voted to re-elect Klobuchar, 30 counties flipped to support Republican Senate contender Royce White over Klobuchar.
Despite the red wave, Klobuchar had one of the strongest performances among Democratic Senate candidates across the country. She was one of the top two who outperformed Harris, behind Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who lost his re-election bid to Republican Tim Sheehy.
Of Minnesota’s 87 counties, 75 featured a majority vote for either Harris and Klobuchar or presidential contender Donald Trump and White. Counties in the metro area and Arrowhead largely supported the pair of Democrats, while many of the state’s remaining counties reported same-party ballots favoring Trump and White.
Just 12 counties supported split-ticket ballots of both Trump and Klobuchar, among them Anoka, Carver and Scott counties. Norman County, north of the Moorhead area, had the largest margin for Trump — more than 20 points — while still also voting for Klobuchar by a slim margin. No counties reported majority ballots for Harris and White.
Shifting support in 2018
Just six years ago — the last time Klobuchar was on the ballot, albeit not in a presidential election year — a far greater number of counties saw support for split-ticket choices in the gubernatorial and Senate races.
Neither race was particularly close when viewed at the statewide level. Then-congressman Tim Walz defeated Republican Jeff Johnson by more than 10 points, and Klobuchar triumphed over Republican Jim Newberger by nearly 25 points. Nevertheless, 30 counties favored both Johnson for governor and Klobuchar for Senate.
Carver and Scott number among these split counties, while Anoka swung left in its support for Walz. Remaining split-ticket counties came from the state’s west and southeast counties. Norman County drew up a tie for governor.
Most counties split in 2012
Revisiting 2012 renders 2024′s political polarization — or lack thereof — all the more stark. The combination of Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney and Klobuchar appeared in 57 counties.
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Counties casting the majority of their votes for Democrat Barack Obama’s second presidential term and Klobuchar came from the metro, northeast and southwest regions of the state. Only two counties, both in the state’s southwest, favored Romney and Republican Senate contender Kurt Bills. That left the majority of outstate counties supporting a Democrat for Congress and a Republican for president.
Of the 57 counties that split their tickets in 2012, 52 would consolidate their support for Trump and White in 2024.
Sydney Kashiwagi contributed to this story.
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