No Section

Five Midwestern election races being watched nationally

A handful of races in the region will have big implications for control of Congress and key governorships.

By Briana Bierschbach

November 7, 2022 at 9:50PM

The race between Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is among a handful that will determine which party controls the chamber. (Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Midwest is flyover country no more.

The last two presidential elections suddenly made states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota battlegrounds for control of the White House.

Now, the nation is watching a handful of races and players in the region this midterm election for their implications on control of Congress and who holds key governorships during the next presidential election.

Minnesota's Second District

The battleground congressional race in Minnesota's Second District is shaping up to be one of the most expensive in the nation and is among a handful that will help determine who holds power in the chamber for the next two years. DFL U.S. Rep. Angie Craig is locked in a tight rematch with Republican Tyler Kistner. The two are battling over abortion access and historic inflation to gain an edge with voters.

Race for Minnesota governor

Voters will decide Tuesday whether to give DFL Gov. Tim Walz a second term or elect Republican physician Scott Jensen — and either outcome would be historically significant. If Walz wins, it will mark the first time in state history Democrats have won four consecutive terms in the governor's office. If Jensen wins, it will be the first time in a dozen years his party will have power over the state's executive branch.

Minnesota's attorney general race

Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison and Republican newcomer Jim Schultz have been neck-and-neck in the polls for months. Forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball has labeled Minnesota's attorney general race a tossup, calling Ellison the country's "most endangered incumbent Democratic AG." Ellison's national profile as a former congressman and DNC leader has the party scrambling to defend him.

Tom Emmer's push to flip the House

Minnesota Republican Rep. Tom Emmer's race in his conservative stronghold is not exactly a race to watch Tuesday night, but his political future is on the line as head of the House GOP's campaign arm. Flipping the chamber on Tuesday could help Emmer win a coveted GOP leadership spot. If Republicans don't win control, Emmer could be blamed for the party's inability to take advantage of a favorable political environment for the party.

Wisconsin's statewide races

Dwarfing Minnesota in both national attention and campaign spending is Wisconsin, where $114 million has been already been spent on the governor's race between incumbent Democrat Tony Evers and Republican challenger Tim Michels. But the state's U.S. Senate race is even more expensive — expected to approach $160 million this cycle — and is among a handful that will decide who controls the chamber next year. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is deadlocked in his race for re-election against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.