Flash Flood Risk for Haiti; Hope for Cuba

A slow-brewing tropical low pressure area could bring both needed rain andflooding to Haiti and other islands in the northern Caribbean in days ahead.Weak steering currents will translate to not only a slow-moving, poorlyorganized low pressure area, but also the risk of slow-moving torrentialdownpours.

We could be talking inches of rain on certain days, with potential for a footof rain over several days, depending on where thunderstorm complexes form.

The island of Hispaniola is made up of the Dominican Republic andearthquake-ravaged Haiti, where hundreds of thousands remain homeless, livingunder tarps, tents, or in shanties.

The central and western Caribbean are favored areas for tropical developmentduring June.

While explosive development of a tropical system is not expected in this caseat this time, any organization, even poor, could focus tremendous rainfall inthe region.

The broad area of non-impressive showers and thunderstorms in the region now islikely to be first enhanced by a weak tropical wave invading from the east. Itis this feature, plus a squeeze of dry air to the north, that could enhancespotty downpours.

While much of the region would welcome reasonable rainfall, following the longdry season from the winter, the risk of flooding downpours and mudslides isthere, given even weak development in coming days.

According tothe BBC, Cuba is facing its worst drought in 50 years, a situation that hasbeen ongoing for some two years now, leading to dwindling reservoirs, waterrationing, and the risk of crop failures.

Under the always-hot tropical sun, Havana has received less than 6 inches ofrain since the start of November 2010.

It is possible the pattern over the next couple of weeks could yield someneeded rainfall for part of Cuba. However, it would take more than a few daysof heavy rain or weeks of normal rainfall this summer to replenish the supplyof water.

While a bit of rain has reached into part of Cuba in recent days, and episodesof drenching rain have impacted Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands earlier inMay, folks in Florida are still waiting for the arrival of the rainy season.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski