For Trump and Minnesota Republicans, Nikki Haley’s strength in the metro leaves big questions

Republican presidential primary voters showed a split between greater Minnesota and the metro in their votes Tuesday.

Donald Trump is all but certain to become the Republican nominee, but in Minnesota, the places where former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley had a strong showing in the Republican primary show where Trump might run into trouble this fall. Haley pitched herself squarely at suburban voters, independents and moderate Republicans turned off by Trump. She got more than 97,000 votes — nearly 29% of the GOP primary vote — and performed best in the metro.

“It’s no surprise that Nikki Haley did well in areas where Republicans have been struggling,” said Amy Koch, a former Republican state senator who served as majority leader. “We’ve shed a lot of suburban districts. Yet we’ve picked up in greater Minnesota.”

“Haley was definitely a metro candidate,” said Steven Schier, Carleton College political science professor emeritus. But there are not nearly as many suburban moderate Republicans as there once were, he said — just as there are fewer Democrats in greater Minnesota. For highly educated suburban moderates who did not like Trump in 2016 and 2020, his presence at the top of the ticket might be a barrier for Republicans down-ballot, even if they are more moderate themselves.

“It’s not at all clear that you can separate yourself from Trump and some of the unpleasant aspects of Trump in the suburbs and central cities in order to survive,” Schier said.

But that’s what Republicans will try to do to win state House races this fall, said House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring.

Demuth said she thinks Republicans can gain ground and unify disparate factions if they stay focused on Minnesota issues, especially the sweeping Democratic policies enacted during the 2023 legislative session, which Republicans have blasted as overreach.

“We are really going to work to pull all corners of our party together and do that outreach to independents and Democrats who are ready to look at what happened to our state and restore the balance,” Demuth sad.

“When you really are at the doors, people want to know about state issues,” said Rep. Kristin Robbins, R-Maple Grove, who served as Minnesota chair to Haley’s campaign. She thinks voters will separate local races and issues from the presidential election.

Trump’s coattails helped Minnesota Republicans in 2016, Koch said, but, “in ‘18, ‘20 and ‘22 he was absolutely a drag. What we’ve seen in Minnesota was the [DFL] trifecta as a result of that.”

“In some districts he will be very helpful,” Koch said, especially for contests of DFL-held seats on the Iron Range and in western Minnesota. But Trump may not help to win back suburban districts, Koch said.

Yet higher turnout for the Republican primary felt like good news for the GOP, Koch said.

“I’d be feeling a lot better in the Trump camp than the Biden camp,” she said. “It’s not a slam dunk by any means but it’s definitely momentum on Trump’s side right now, and that will absolutely affect down-ballot.”

Demuth agreed. “I am pretty encouraged by the strong turnout for the Republican side.”

But Koch said she wonders what people who voted for Haley in the primary will do in November.

“Do they come home? Do they not?” she asked.

Trump will need those voters to have any hope of winning Minnesota, which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. And Republicans trying to take back the House wonder how voters in the suburbs will react in swing districts in the outer reaches of the Twin Cities.

“There’s a lot of volatility here. There are a lot of people who are resisting the choice,” between Trump and Biden, Schier said. “That does add an element of unpredictability to this.”

If a better-known third-party candidate such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualifies for the general election ballot, Schier said, that becomes another level of unpredictability.

“I’m not putting any money down anywhere,” he said.