For Wolves, chance to truly contend hinges on lottery result tonight

Because things with the Timberwolves often tend to be complicated, here how I read the situation heading into Tuesday night's lottery drawing:

A franchise that seldom gets any luck when it comes to the draft is going to be relying on it Tuesday, given that there is only a 27.6% chance the Wolves will get to keep the pick based on the drawing.

And an organization that a year ago almost certainly didn't think it would have a meaningful chance of keeping its 2021 first-round pick should now be able to see clearly just how much keeping or losing it will alter the course of the next few years.

As you have been told dozens of times already: The Wolves only get to keep their first round pick if it's in the top three. By virtue of finishing with the sixth-worst record, there's a 27.6% chance of the pick being No. 1, 2 or 3.

Otherwise, it will convey to Golden State as part of the D'Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins swap. The Warriors will get the Wolves' 2022 first round pick if Minnesota keeps this year's pick, but presumably that 2022 pick would be less valuable if the Wolves keep improving.

I can't imagine the Wolves envisioned the pick having so much value when they added it to the Wiggins deal. The hope was Towns and Russell would click quickly, elevating the Wolves to at least the late lottery and perhaps even the playoffs in their first full season together.

But Towns and Russell missed a ton of games a year ago, the pandemic exacerbated learning curve woes and the final product was a 23-49 record.

So here we are now: The Wolves can still be a fringe playoff team next season even if the ping pong balls tilt toward the 72.4% majority and the pick goes to the Warriors. But as I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast, a top three pick would put the Wolves in the conversation to add a player like Ben Simmons via trade. And a move like that could transform the Wolves from the fringes to a legit playoff contender.

Beat writer Chris Hine spoke to Timberwolves President Gersson Rosas recently, and of course Rosas said the organization has several contingencies based on what happens Tuesday night and that the Wolves are comfortable and confident no matter what happens.

An intriguing addition we shouldn't forget about is Leandro Bolmaro, who played in Spain and was named "Most Spectacular Player" in that league after the Wolves took him with the the 23rd pick last year.

But players like Bolmaro are still long shots to be franchise-altering players, as is 2021 MVP and former 41st overall pick Nikola Jokic. It can happen, but the clearest path is accumulating high-value assets like a top-3 pick.

Just look at the current roster, which is built around Karl-Anthony Towns (2015 No. 1 overall pick), D'Angelo Russell (2015 No. 2 overall pick) and Anthony Edwards (2020 No. 1 overall pick).

Edwards will represent the Wolves virtually in this year's lottery drawing, providing a bit of symbolism for the fortune that smiled on Minnesota a year ago when a 14% chance at getting the No. 1 overall pick became a 100% reality.

The Wolves should be encouraged by their finish to last season, when they went 7-5 in their last 12 games and showed the potential of the Towns, Edwards and Russell trio.

But even if the assembled group progresses, I think there's a limit to how far it can go as currently constructed — and probably an expiration date on how long Towns is willing to wait to see things get significantly better.

A top-3 pick — one the Wolves had no right to think would be within their grasp when they traded for Russell — could change that in a hurry.