Forecast for winter getaways: Partly cloudy

Every winter, Joan and Thomas Bordwell of Coon Rapids look forward to an after-the-holidays vacation, but when their nonstop flights for a February trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, were canceled, they stopped having fun.

Not only were they rebooked on flights with long layovers in Atlanta, but the frequent-flier miles they had used for the nonstop flight were gone. Furthermore, the trip will cost them an additional $300 for an extra night in a hotel because the new schedule has them arriving a day earlier.

"I've never had such a terrible time with an airline trying to dictate how our vacation will be, and when it will be," Joan said.

The Bordwells won't be alone in their frustration this winter. On U.S. carriers, the annual decline in seat capacity (the collective number of seats on commercial airlines) has been greater this year than any other since 1942, when commercial craft were shifted to military service, according to the Air Transport Association (ATA), a trade group representing major U.S. airlines. That means that anyone planning a last-minute vacation or trying to rebook a seat after getting bumped is likely to find fewer options. But the situation could also be a boon to travelers looking for a deal, because airlines and hotels are scrambling to reduce vacancies.

Nationwide, airline capacity levels dropped by 8 percent from 2008 to 2009, and they are expected to continue to decline into early 2010, according to the ATA.

With fewer people traveling, airlines are trying to limit the number of empty seats by cutting the number of flights and using smaller planes when possible.

"Ever since the economic downturn, carriers have been cutting capacity to match demand," said Elizabeth Merida, an ATA spokeswoman. "We're still in a difficult period, and carriers will continue to respond to that."

Randy Petersen, editor of InsideFlyer magazine, said that flights are usually canceled because of weather, but added that with so many flights going out nearly full, rebooking a flight this winter will be very difficult regardless of why it happens. "There might be only six seats on the next flight, and with those small numbers it's going to take 10 days to get people where they want to go," he said.

According to the ATA, the "load factor" -- how full the plane is -- has been averaging 80 percent. "That means you're not going to have an empty seat next to you," Merida said. "And if you have to reschedule, it might be difficult to get first choice of flights."

Hotel booking a breeze

The lodging industry is also faced with fewer travelers, so booking a resort or hotel should be easy unless you're going to a destination where there aren't enough rooms to meet demand. Many popular winter vacation spots, including Mexico, the Caribbean and Las Vegas, have recently gone through building booms, and that translates to lower prices. In addition, because budget-conscious travelers have been cutting back on the length of their vacations, you'll find more hotels and resorts offering shorter minimum-night stay requirements.

Don't count on deep price cuts, however. Most hotels and resorts are loath to offer permanent price cuts because that makes it more difficult to raise rates when conditions improve. Travelers will be likelier to find one-time discounts, special offers and other short-term incentives. "[Travelers] should be looking out for ways to get more bang for their buck at hotels or all-inclusives than they would have received last year at this time," said Alison Buckneberg of Delta Vacations.