Vehicles circled the Minnesota State Capitol, covered with flags and signs, during Saturday’s protest against Gov. Tim Walz’s “Stay Home MN” executive orders in May 2020. Expect the politics of polarization over COVID policies to continue in 2022, with the divisions shifting to administrative actions on vaccines. (Aaron Lavinsky, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota politics packs a lot into a year.

In 2021, Minnesota's delegation in Washington witnessed an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, the state Republican Party imploded in scandal, Minnesota lost a political icon in Walter Mondale, and the world watched as Minneapolis voters rejected an amendment to reshape the police department.

There's plenty more in store this year, some things we can predict and much more we won't see coming. Using our murky crystal ball, here are four big things we're watching in 2022.

Battle over the surplus

Everything these days seems to be slapped with the "historic" label, and this year's budget surplus is no different. Coming in at a projected $7.7 billion, it's the most extra money lawmakers have had sitting on the bottom line in state history.

While that might sound nice, it's going to create plenty of problems in St. Paul, where government is still divided. The two parties already have wildly diverging views on what to do with the extra cash. Democrats want to pass paid family leave and help families and those hit hardest by the pandemic, while Republicans want to stave off expected tax increases on businesses.

Continuing COVID politics

In 2021 we saw the politics around COVID-19 become even more polarized, with Republicans and Democrats clashing over everything from emergency powers to aid for front-line workers. Expect that trend to continue in 2022, with the divisions shifting to administrative actions on vaccines.

Senate Republicans are threatening to oust Minnesota Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm next session over state vaccine policies, and expect the party to keep pushing for the administration to lift a vaccine mandate for state workers.

Reshaping political maps

The divided House and Senate are expected to miss a Feb. 15 deadline this year to agree to new political boundaries for state legislative and congressional districts. When that happens, a five-judge panel is readying to release their own version of the state's new redistricting maps, ones that will scramble the political dynamics in some districts and pit some incumbent lawmakers against one another.

The process is being closely watched by both parties, with the lines helping to determine their political fate for the next decade to come.

Critical midterm election

All 201 seats in the Legislature and the governor's office are on the ballot next year, which means control of state government is at stake. Republicans feel emboldened by low polling numbers for President Joe Biden, but Democrats are hopeful demographic shifts and approval of their COVID-19 response will help them hold on to key offices.

Several state congressional races will also be highly targeted next year as Republicans try to take back the U.S. House, and expect a lot of attention on the races for attorney general and secretary of state.