General Mills’ $1.2B bet on pet treats falls victim to poor timing

When General Mills paid $1.2 billion for Tyson’s pet treats business in 2021, CEO Jeff Harmening predicted a “long runway of strong, profitable growth ahead.”

Three years later, the maker of Blue Buffalo is downgrading the value of its True Chews and Top Chews brands over “lower future sales and profitability projections,” per a recent filing. The Nudges brand may soon follow.

After a strong run during the pandemic, pet food has not been the typical growth machine for Golden Valley-based General Mills this year, and treats are partly to blame. Treat sales are facing a one-two punch of pet parents returning to the office and cutting out discretionary purchases.

“The dollars in the pet category have declined slightly, but that’s only because the treats portion of the category has declined because it’s more price sensitive and it’s more discretionary,” Harmening said at an investor conference in September.

The CEO is hoping stocking stuffers for the nation’s dogs will turn things around for the company’s $2.3 billion pet food business, which saw overall sales drop for the first time last year.

“We’re launching more innovation, including incremental seasonal offerings, that should help us build momentum,” Harmening told analysts in September. “Treating for pets is a little bit seasonal.”

Treating used to be an everyday occasion for pet owners working from home during the pandemic. With more employees back in the office at least a few days a week, there are fewer opportunities to empty the treat bag. Wet pet food, often used as a topper for bowls of kibble, has seen declines for the same reason.

Higher prices — for pet treats and pet food in addition to everything else — also weigh heavily on the business.

“Even minor price changes can affect consumer pet spending, especially in the discretionary pet segments,” reports John Gibbons, who writes the blog Pet Business Professor.

Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers said General Mills is making “targeted price point corrections” to its pet offerings that could draw back some consumers.

Overall, the pet segment is struggling as “pet parents trade down and rationalize, which includes buying less wet pet food and pet snacks,” writes CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram.

General Mills moved to save money producing pet treats last year in the face of declining sales. The company closed the Iowa pet treat plant it bought from Tyson and found third-party manufacturers to make pet treats instead.

Blue Buffalo, which General Mills bought for $8 billion in 2018, has benefited greatly from the “humanization” of pet food, a willingness to pay more for quality ingredients. As that trend hits the belt-tightening end of a long run of inflation, General Mills is increasingly relying on advertising and retail promotions to keep Blue Buffalo growing, Harmening said.

“The work we really have to do now is to get treats back growing again,” Harmening said. “At the end of the year, we’re going to say, yes, look, we have bent the curve on growth.”