General Mills executives: Strong year ahead despite persistent inflation

General Mills executives expect an even stronger year — in both sales and profit — than they predicted just three months ago, leading the company to raise its financial outlook on Wednesday.

Chief Executive Jeff Harmening said it's not that the company's costs aren't rising. They are. Inflation could push its input costs up as much as 15% over the course of its fiscal year, which ends in May. But the Golden Valley-based packaged foods maker is more than offsetting those inflationary pressures through higher prices for customers or fewer on-shelf discounts.

General Mills reported an $820 million profit during its first fiscal quarter, which runs June through August. That's a 30% increase over the same quarter last year and includes a windfall from the sale of the Helper and Suddenly Salad brands.

"The main driver really was that in North America, our consumption and our volume was higher than we anticipated it being," Harmening told the Star Tribune on Wednesday. "And more consumers shifted to eating at home versus away-from-home eating."

Analysts expected quarterly earnings per share to reach $1, an increase of 1% over last year. Adjusting for divestitures and other one-time events, General Mills beat expectations with $1.11 per adjusted diluted share.

Revenue for the quarter was $4.7 billion, a 4% increase over last year.

Price increases, coupled with a reduction in sales and promotions, again fueled higher sales and profits. As those costs bear down on consumers — in the form of higher grocery bills — shoppers bought fewer General Mills products during the summer quarter.

About 75% of unit decline can be attributed to "promotional pullback," said Jon Nudi, the company's president of North American Retail, using industry parlance for temporary discounts and deals.

But consumers are also shifting their dollars from restaurants and higher-priced grocery items. This behavior often benefits consumer staple brands, like those made by General Mills.

"We're still seeing strong demand, essentially selling everything we can make," Chief Financial Officer Kofi Bruce said.

Moody's Investor Services wrote last month that while General Mills doesn't necessarily suffer during downturns, "there is risk in some segments that consumers could trade down during weaker economic periods to less expensive alternatives."

So far, though, demand is holding up much better than expected despite the price increases and consumers facing high costs elsewhere.

Snacks, baking and cereal did especially well this summer. Blue Buffalo pet food is still seeing more demand than the company has the capacity to meet.

"Even with inflation, food at home is still a good value," Harmening said. "Consumer sentiment is important, and consumers are nervous. That drives consumption to food at home."

All major food companies have passed along higher prices to consumers to deal with increased labor, energy and transportation costs — and to protect profit margins. Prices may have peaked, for now, at General Mills.

The company's previously announced price hikes are already in the marketplace, and those "should cover the inflation we see," Bruce said. "As long as we're in this range of expected inflation."

The company now expects to see organic net sale growth — which doesn't include acquisitions and divestitures — in the range of 6% to 7%, up from its earliest guidance of 4% to 5%. The company also expects a 2% to 5% increase in earnings per share.

"Demand for General Mills' products, especially in North America, remains strong, driving the increase in guidance," said Edward Jones analyst Brittany Quatrochi. "Investor expectations were high, but General Mills delivered solid results."

General Mills stock moved up nearly 6%, to $79.72, on Wednesday. The stock touched a record high of $81.04 during the day's trading.