Geographic, political divides are challenges for DFL quest to retake House

GRAND RAPIDS, Minn. -- State Rep. Tom Anzelc was standing outside an L&M sporting goods and hardware store beaming from all the people he knew from his union days or by way of their kids growing up together.

A man approached and curtly confronted him about his abortion stance before walking away, adding over his shoulder, "If you were really doing your job, wouldn't the mines be booming?"

Minutes later, a store manager appeared and asked him to seek permission from ownership before campaigning.

That's life these days for Anzelc, a DFLer in his fifth term facing a restive and sometimes angry electorate, suffering economic distress during a mining downturn and looking for an unconventional savior in Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

Anzelc also faces a tough opponent in Sandy Layman, a well-known economic development consultant who spent eight years as former GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty's commissioner of the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board.

The massive, stair-step-shaped district — among the small townships: Smoky Hollow, population 70 — illustrates the challenge faced by the modern DFL, which must stitch together a fragile geographic coalition. To win the seven seats it needs to return to the majority, the House DFL will largely rely on urban and suburban districts but must also keep a lock on the Iron Range and pick off a few areas of rural Minnesota.

The Anzelc-Layman race is matched by equally competitive contests in outstate regional centers like Willmar, Faribault and Red Wing that will help determine whether the House stays Republican.

Minnesota's politics — mirroring a national trend underway for decades — have become geographically divided. While the DFL consolidates its control of urban districts, Republicans have made gains in areas outside the Twin Cities, flipping 10 House seats in 2014.

"I wouldn't want to be a DFL legislator from this region right now," said Layman, who has lived in the area for decades.

Republicans have long believed the party is more culturally attuned to the Iron Range and hoped to make inroads that would shatter an important geographic piece of DFL majorities. Like many Republicans, Iron Rangers largely oppose gun restrictions and environmental regulations and have become increasingly skeptical of global trade deals often backed by Democrats.

Anzelc acknowledged fissures opening between rural DFL members like himself and his colleagues in the Twin Cities: "Yes, it will continue to crack because rural Minnesota is losing population to the Twin Cities and losing clout at the Capitol," he said. "Their understanding of what makes Minnesota great runs into conflict with [the] natural resource-based economy of this region," he said. Which is precisely why the region needs someone like Anzelc to give straight talk to Gov. Mark Dayton and other DFL leaders, he added.

Layman is making the case for change. And she could be aided by the difficult regional economy, which Layman said she's witnessed during her door knocking.

"I am concerned, and the business community and families are concerned, that forces outside the area are dictating our economic future," she said, which dovetails with the message that Trump has been pushing in other struggling working-class areas of the Midwest.

Layman points to strong relationships with local businesses and a GOP policy agenda that would keep a lid on taxes and regulations, creating what she said was a better private sector environment for a region desperate to find the next economic engine that will attract and retain its population, especially young people.

She knocked on doors in a Grand Rapids housing complex earlier in October, connecting with voters about local ties and her local community service while avoiding contentious policy issues or any discussion of her party. She brightened twice when coming upon people she'd known for years.

Anzelc faces another problem in a race that could have a razor-thin margin of victory, Green Party challenger Dennis Barsness. He could easily pull enough votes away from Anzelc to give Layman the win. In 2008, a third-party candidate in the district got 1,100 votes.

Anzelc, who has a thatch of dark hair, a broad smile and a booming voice, remains confident.

He has been a teacher and coach, an assistant commissioner of human services under legendary Iron Range Gov. Rudy Perpich and a political director for the laborers union. Having lost a wife to ovarian cancer and raised three girls, he has special insights into women's health issues.

Anzelc is running an old-school campaign that hits every door, regardless of party affiliation, while boasting of all the bacon he brings back home. "My road project," he said proudly of the widening happening on Hwy. 169.

At a community meeting in his hometown of Balsam Township, population 550, more than 150 residents packed a hot community room, a trophy case displaying champions in baseball and hockey. State and local officials and executives of Paul Bunyan Communications were there to celebrate the state's broadband initiative to bring high-speed internet to the state's most remote areas like this one. Plus, they were giving away a TV.

Although both candidates are talking about local issues, with a particular focus on the IRRRB, the race may come down to a wild presidential contest happening far from here. Here's why: Voters are less inclined to split their tickets than in the past, according to political scientists, meaning a vote for Trump is often a vote for Layman, just as a vote for Clinton is a vote for Anzelc. And, the enthusiasm surrounding the presidential race, or lack thereof, will help determine turnout, which could ultimately decide the winner of this race. Higher turnout is usually better for the DFL candidate.

Trump is like an unpredictable political weather system, his effect on the area as unknown as it is widely speculated upon. Anzelc said it was a frequent topic during his door knocking, one he had to sometimes elude with alacrity given his support for Hillary Clinton.

Trump's no-holds-barred style and proposals to renegotiate trade agreements have resonated with people here, corroborated by a September Star Tribune Minnesota Poll in which he was leading Clinton by a wide margin outside the Twin Cities.

But then a video surfaced of him making lewd comments about women.

Asked about her presidential choice, Layman replied in an e-mail: "I'm definitely not voting for Clinton, but our nominee has not earned my support yet."

J. Patrick Coolican • 651-925-5042