Luke Fickell leaned hard into the Wisconsin-Minnesota football rivalry, and you hardly could blame him.
Analysis: This time, the Gophers can win the Axe and chop down Wisconsin’s bowl hopes
The Badgers just need one more win for a bowl bid, but that’s been the case going into their past four games, all losses.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 27, 2024 at 4:30PM
“It comes down for a battle for an axe, and anyone who can’t get up for that doesn’t belong in either one of these places,” Fickell said Monday in the leadup to Friday’s 11 a.m. regular-season finale at Camp Randall Stadium, where Paul Bunyan’s Axe will become property of the victor.
Fickell’s Badgers enter the game with a 5-6 overall record, needing to beat the Gophers to achieve bowl eligibility. They’ve had four cracks at that sixth win, falling to Penn State, Iowa, Oregon and, last week, Nebraska, losing 44-25 to the Cornhuskers.
There’s a sense of urgency this week for Wisconsin. The Badgers went 7-6 in Fickell’s debut last year, a record that’s not tolerated often in Madison. He has already fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo because the “Dairy Raid” offensive approach hasn’t been a great fit, and even Barry Alvarez, the Godfather of Badgers football, recently questioned whether the team had an identity.
Fickell’s seat might not be hot yet, but it’s warming. Remember, his predecessor, Paul Chryst, had four seasons of double-digit wins in his first seven years at Wisconsin yet was fired after a 2-3 start in 2022.
A victory over the Gophers would at least temporarily dial down the heat.
“In rivalry games, you throw records out the window and sometimes even home-field advantage out the window,” Fickell said. “It comes down to who wants it more.”
The Gophers also have ample reasons to want it more. After a four-game winning streak moved them to 6-3, they’ve lost back-to-back games to Rutgers and No. 4 Penn State. They would like to boost their bowl destination by improving to 7-5, and they also want to avoid a late-season collapse like last year’s 0-4 November for a 5-7 regular season. In addition, a Gophers victory would deny the Badgers a bowl bid, inflicting some mental anguish on their bitter rival.
Gophers bowl scenarios
The Gophers will know their bowl destination Dec. 8, and this weekend will bring the picture into focus.
If the Gophers win, their most likely destinations are the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Jan. 3 in Charlotte, N.C., or the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville. At 7-5, they would likely be battling with Michigan, Nebraska and Rutgers for a spot in either. Less likely are the Pinstripe Bowl in New York and the Rate Bowl in Phoenix because Minnesota played in each of those two and three years ago, respectively.
If the Gophers lose, Wisconsin joins the fight among 7-5 and 6-6 teams. Chances increase that the Gophers end up in either the Pinstripe, Rate or the fan base’s least desirable bowl, the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit, where Minnesota played last season as well as in 2018 and 2015.
If the Gophers lose, Wisconsin joins the fight among 7-5 and 6-6 teams. Chances increase that the Gophers end up in either the Pinstripe, Rate or, less likely, the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit, where Minnesota played last year, in 2019 and 2015.
There’s one scenario in which the Gophers aren’t part of the Big Ten’s usual bowl lineup. If they lost to Wisconsin and Michigan State beats Rutgers to secure a sixth win, the Spartans would be a strong bet to land in Detroit. That could leave the Gophers to match up with a non-Big Ten bowl, such as the First Responder Bowl on Jan. 3 in Dallas.
Playoff, bowl projections
A look at a weekly projection of the College Football Playoff field and the bowl matchups involving Big Ten teams. The projections use predicted outcomes, not current rankings:
College Football Playoff
First round, Dec. 20-21
No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Texas
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Notre Dame
Quarterfinals
Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31): Oregon-Arizona State winner vs. No. 4 Boise State
Peach Bowl (Jan. 1): Indiana-Penn State winner vs. No. 3 Miami (Fla.)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): SMU-Texas winner vs. No. 2 Georgia
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Tennessee-Notre Dame winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9): Fiesta winner vs. Rose winner
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10): Peach winner vs. Sugar winner
Championship
Jan. 20, Atlanta: Semifinal winners
Other Big Ten bowls
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31, Orlando): Illinois vs. Alabama
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31, Tampa): Iowa vs. South Carolina
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30, Nashville): Nebraska vs. Ole Miss
Duke’s Mayo (Jan. 3, Charlotte): Gophers vs. Duke
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28, New York): Michigan vs. Pittsburgh
Rate Bowl (Dec. 26, Phoenix): Rutgers vs. Texas Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26, Detroit): not filled by Big Ten
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): USC vs. Texas A&M
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31, El Paso): Washington vs. Virginia Tech
The Badgers just need one more win for a bowl bid, but that’s been the case going into their past four games, all losses.
