Will Bret Bielema improve to 11-0 all-time vs. Gophers? Randy Johnson’s preview, prediction.

The Gophers have a streak of their own going — three straight Big Ten victories — and will try to carry that momentum to Champaign against No. 24 Illinois.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 1, 2024 at 1:00PM
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has 15 touchdown passes and just three interceptions this season. (Charles Rex Arbogast)

Gophers at No. 24 Illinois

Kickoff: 11 a.m., Saturday

Where: Memorial Stadium

TV: FS1; Radio: 100.3-FM

Line: Gophers by 3

Fresh off a dominant 48-23 victory over Maryland in which they raced to a 24-0 second-quarter lead, the Gophers travel to Illinois, which lost 38-9 at No. 1 Oregon last week. Minnesota (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) has dropped three straight to the Fighting Illini (6-2, 3-2) but is on a three-game winning streak.

Three big story lines

Can the Gophers end the Bielema hex?

Under coach Bret Bielema, Illinois is 3-0 against the Gophers and coach P.J. Fleck, including last year’s improbable comeback for a 27-26 victory. Add in his time as Wisconsin’s coach, and Bielema is 10-0 against Minnesota, with those seven other Badgers victories coming against Glen Mason, Tim Brewster and Jerry Kill.

Can Max Brosmer continue his hot streak?

The Gophers quarterback, who went 26-for-33 for 320 yards and four TDs against Maryland, is the reigning Big Ten offensive player of the week. He finished October with a three-game stat total of 67-for-89 (75.3%) for 682 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. He also rushed for three TDs.

Can the Gophers keep winning without the run game?

In Big Ten play, the Gophers are averaging 94.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 15th in the conference and is a total that Mo Ibrahim might have had by halftime. But they’re making it work because of the short passing game. Darius Taylor’s 34 receptions are the most among Big Ten running backs.

Two key matchups

Illinois QB Luke Altmyer vs. Gophers S Koi Perich

Altmyer, who threw three TD passes in Illinois’ victory over the Gophers last year, has 15 TD passes against three interceptions and can cause problems for a defense with his feet, too. Perich, the true freshman phenom, leads the Big Ten with five interceptions and has a knack for causing fumbles, too.

Gophers WR Daniel Jackson vs. Illinois CB Xavier Scott

Jackson leads the Gophers with 51 receptions for 568 yards and three TDs, and he’s coming off a nine-catch, 117-yard, two-TD effort. The Illini’s top defensive back is Scott, who has three interceptions and is the top-rated tackler among Power Four cornerbacks in the Pro Football Focus rankings.

One stat that matters

47.1%

The Gophers’ combined completion percentage in their past three games against Illinois. Minnesota QBs were 33-for-70 for 405 yards and three TDs with five interceptions.

How the Gophers will win

Brosmer continues to play at a high level, spreading the ball around and sustaining long drives to keep Illinois out of rhythm. Minnesota takes an early lead and gets enough out of its run game to keep the Illini honest. And Perich continues to impact the game at safety and on punt returns.

How the Illini will win:

Illinois uses its power up front to make holes for RB Aidan Laughery and takes an early lead. Altmyer’s mobility causes problems for Minnesota’s defense. The Illini defense shuts down the Gophers run game and pressures Brosmer into mistakes. And the Illini get a couple of takeaways.

Prediction

The Gophers are seeking their second victory over a team ranked in the AP Top 25 this season, something they haven’t done since the 2019 season. So far in Big Ten play, they’ve been in three one-score games, falling to Michigan but beating USC and UCLA. They’d gladly take the start they had last week against Maryland, but that will be tough to repeat on the road. Brosmer is giving the Gophers their best play at QB since Tanner Morgan five years ago, and that continues in Champaign.

My expectation: The Gophers came close to beating then-No. 12 Michigan on the road. They’ll finish the job at No. 24 Illinois and gain bowl eligibility. Gophers 20, Illinois 17

about the writer

Randy Johnson

College football reporter

Randy Johnson covers University of Minnesota football and college football for the Star Tribune, along with Gophers hockey and the Wild.

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