Will Nevada push the Gophers football team more than expected? Randy Johnson’s prediction

A 19-17 loss to North Carolina in the season opener put the Gophers off schedule, but they rebounded well in a 48-0 romp over FCS-level Rhode Island last week. The competition level ramps back up with a visit from Nevada (1-2), a much-improved team under new coach Jeff Choate from the one that went 2-10 each of the past two seasons.

Will the Gophers passing game continue to improve?

Max Brosmer completed 24 of 30 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns against Rhode Island, giving the Gophers just what they wanted from the graduate transfer. He spread the ball around, connecting with nine different pass-catchers. Expect more of the same against a team that’s giving up 250 passing yards per game.

Can Minnesota’s offensive line become dominant?

The Gophers are averaging 97.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 110th among the 134 FBS teams and is 60 yards fewer than their average last year. They missed leading rusher Darius Taylor in the opener, and the offensive line’s play has been inconsistent. The move of Quinn Carroll from right guard to right tackle shored up one spot.

Gophers LB Cody Lindenberg vs. Nevada QB Brendon Lewis

The Gophers have seen Brendon Lewis before. He was Colorado’s starter in Minnesota’s 30-0 rout of the Buffaloes in 2021 in Boulder. Lewis is a much better QB now, passing for 561 yards and five TDs with no interceptions and rushing for 208 yards and a score. Lindenberg’s speed will be a factor in slowing Lewis.

LT Aireontae Ersery vs. Nevada Edge Kaden Johnson

Kaden Johnson, the former Minnehaha Academy standout and four-year player for Wisconsin, isn’t certain to play because of an elbow injury. But if he can go, it would be an intriguing matchup to see him battle Aireontae Ersery, who’s a potential early NFL draft choice.

One stat that matters

5 – Average margin of victory for the Gophers in their past four games against teams from the Mountain West Conference. They beat Fresno State 21-14 in 2018 and 38-35 in OT the next year, and Colorado State 23-20 in OT in 2015 and 31-24 the next year.

With Big Ten play starting next week, the Gophers will try to keep diversifying their offense by focusing on Brosmer and the passing game while trying to get the running game to match its previous high standard. On defense, controlling Lewis and his ability on option reads will be important. The Gophers also had a bounce-back game from kicker Dragan Kesich last week.

Nevada must fuel its upset chances by forcing turnovers and keeping Minnesota’s defense off balance with the option game. If the Wolf Pack can take an early lead, play a patient game and have some success on special teams, they’ll put the pressure on the Gophers.

Facing a team from the Mountain West hasn’t been a day at the beach for the Gophers, and Nevada has some of the ingredients to spring an upset, such as a dynamic quarterback and a steady-at-the-helm coach. The Gophers can counter that if they avoid being one-dimensional on offense and make sure Brosmer has the protection and running game success to keep Nevada off balance.

My expectation: The Gophers are 17-point favorites against the Wolf Pack, and that seems like too big of a number. Minnesota wins, but Nevada makes the Gophers work for it. Gophers 31, Nevada 26