Gophers football prediction: Mid-level bowl could be ceiling

Since I'm on a roll with my prediction that the Twins will win 91 games this season, let's go double or nothing with the mighty Golden Gophers, led by coach P.J. "Air" Fleck.

Fleck looked at their 2023 schedule — one in which I see maybe seven wins — and declared it opportunistic.

By the way, I'm sure the geniuses at ESPN have their formula for determining that the Gophers had the second-toughest schedule in the country. But it might barely be the second toughest in the Big Ten. Michigan State must run through the Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State gantlet, while the Gophers miss Penn State. And the Spartans have a nonconference game against Washington, which is just as challenging, if not more, than Gophers at North Carolina on Sept. 16.

There's no doubt the Gophers will have to pack a lunch this season. It's more than facing the Buckeyes, Wolverines and Tar Heels. Minnesota has lost eight straight games to Iowa, and now offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has bonuses in his contract that call for at least seven victories and an average of 25 points a game.

Bret Bielema is 9-0 against the Gophers during his time at Wisconsin and Illinois. Speaking of the Badgers, no one will recognize them this year as Luke Fickell has been hired and will enhance their passing game.

Opportunistic? How about onerous? Especially for a Gophers team in transition.

The Fleck offense looks to be moving away from the run-heavy approach that has contributed to 29 wins over the past three seasons. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has the makings of a stud, with his 319-yard performance against Wisconsin last season an example of what he can be. There are four Gophers pass catchers among the three all-conference preseason teams, including first-team pick Brevyn Spann-Ford. Running back transfers Sean Tyler and Darius Taylor will boost that position and, my goodness, Bryce Williams is still around.

There are trouble spots. One is that the Gophers must replace three starters on the offensive line, including All-America center John Michael Schmitz. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery has the size and footwork to protect his quarterback's blind side.

As for the other three O-line positions, Fleck has indicated that a clear-cut five has not emerged during practices and that a rotation might be at hand. Oh boy. The Gophers will run into some experienced defensive lines in the Big Ten, most notably, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa and Illinois. This new offensive era is going nowhere unless Fleck's flock of redshirt senior linemen can meet the challenge.

Also, how will Fleck, who has won with ball control and clock-burning game plans, react after interceptions? He's used to getting a lead and then safely handing off to Mo Ibrahim 25-30 times. Run, clock, run. Then start the bus. That's how games were won. How willing will he be to ride through picked-off passes, which are inevitable? His catchphrase is: "You must take care of the football. The ball is the program." The program will be airborne more than ever under Fleck.

A third issue: Tyler Nubin and Justin Walley are NFL-bound defensive backs, but how's that front seven?

So let's run through this onerous schedule with concerns about how effective the Gophers will be in both trenches and in the air. Nebraska — win. Matt Rhule knows how to turn around programs, but not this quickly. Eastern Michigan — win. North Carolina — loss. Northwestern — win. Louisiana — win. Michigan — loss. A motivated Brian Ferentz — loss. Michigan State — win in matchup of terrible schedules. Illinois — loss. Purdue — win. Ohio State — loss. Wisconsin — win, with 1,000 yards of offense between the teams.

That's a 7-5 record and another bowl berth. Maybe Fleck can flip the Illinois game. But there's no way he's going into Iowa City and coming out with a positive result. Listen to me now and believe me later. Just like when I made my Twins prediction (ducks).