The chief complaint about the last three full Gophers football seasons, at least in terms of results, is that P.J. Fleck's program couldn't secure the one win toward that end of the year that would or could catapult them into the Big Ten title game.
Gophers football mission: Establish higher floor for what makes a successful season
P.J. Fleck has the Gophers on a good path. But 2023 might be as much about maintaining a baseline level of performance than competing for a conference title.
August 23, 2023 at 1:23AM
In 2019, it was losses to Iowa and Wisconsin that put a slight stain on an otherwise brilliant 11-2 season. In 2021 and 2022, late losses to Iowa proved decisive even in nine-win seasons.
Given how most of the last half-century of Gophers football has gone, these complaints feel a bit greedy. It is preferable to come up a little short of a big goal than to languish at the bottom of the standings.
Fleck's Gophers have created a relatively high ceiling for expectations in good times: Be in the mix for a conference title.
But when the schedule gets more difficult in 2023 (and likely beyond, with four Pac-12 schools joining in 2024) and the Gophers turn to less experienced players at offensive skill positions, this might be just as important: Maintaining a high floor, as Chip Scoggins and I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
What that means, in essence, is that even in what might be viewed as a bit of a rebuilding year, against stiff competition, the Gophers need to be a seven- or eight-win team if they are going to build program stability.
For good examples, look at Wisconsin and Iowa. The Badgers haven't had a losing season since 2001. Iowa has only had two losing seasons in that same span. Both programs have been able to capitalize on their special seasons while also treading water during other years.
The Gophers haven't fully capitalized on their best years (2003 under Glen Mason, 2014 under Jerry Kill and the aforementioned Fleck seasons). But they also didn't maintain a high enough floor other seasons. Mason's Gophers went just 10-14 in the Big Ten after the 2003 season. Kill's Gophers fell to 2-6 in conference play in 2015.
Fleck's Gophers are 18-9 in the Big Ten in the last three full seasons (not counting the Covid year). But they also face the second-toughest schedule in the country in 2023.
Gambling sites have put their over-under win total at seven this season. They will be well-served to at least hit that mark if they want to build a bridge to 2024 and beyond.
Here are four more things to know today:
*Chip and I also talked about the tenure of Gophers AD Mark Coyle on today's podcast. Coyle was recently linked to the USC job, though the Trojans on Monday hired Washington's Jennifer Cohen.
This week's news was a good opportunity to take stock of Coyle's seven years here. Scoggins gave Coyle a "B" grade for his tenure so far, while I was a little more generous with a B+. What would you give him?
*Also on today's show, I wondered if Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is suffering from an ear infection or if he's just angling for a new contract.
*The Vikings face Tampa Bay in Week 1. The Bucs just named Baker Mayfield as their starting QB. That seems to be a bit of a downgrade from the retired Tom Brady, but then again the Vikings have a history of underperforming against less-heralded quarterbacks.
*The Twins enter a critical 15-game stretch against the Brewers, Rangers and Guardians on Tuesday. FanGraphs gives Minnesota a 95.6% chance to win the AL Central as of now.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
