Will the Gophers reclaim Paul Bunyan’s Axe? Randy Johnson’s preview and prediction

Kickoff: 11 a.m. Friday

Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis.

TV: CBS; Radio: 100.3-FM

Line: Wisconsin by 2

One team wants to avoid being 6-6. The other wants to get to 6-6. That’s the matchup on Black Friday when the Gophers (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) travel to Wisconsin (5-6, 3-5) for the regular-season finale. Paul Bunyan’s Axe will be on the line as Minnesota tries to improve its bowl positioning, while the Badgers try to gain bowl eligibility with a sixth win.

How will the Gophers rebound from the loss to Penn State?

Minnesota went toe-to-toe with No. 4 Penn State last week and fell short in a 26-25 loss. The result was devastating for a team seeking to add a big-game win to its resume. How quickly the Gophers got past that result and focused on beating Wisconsin will help determine their fate on Friday.

Which Wisconsin team will show up?

The Badgers are riding a four-game losing streak, and the last two have shown how up-and-down the team is. On Nov. 16, Wisconsin led No. 1 Oregon by seven points late in the third quarter only to lose 16-13. Last week, they were blown out 44-25 at Nebraska.

How big a factor will the weather be?

It’s November in Big Ten country, and on Friday that means cold temperatures and wind. Friday’s forecast in Madison calls for a high temperature of 23 and west winds of 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. Good luck to the passers, punters and kickers.

Wisconsin RB Tawee Walker vs. Gophers LB Cody Lindenberg

Walker took over when Chez Mellusi stepped away from the team to deal with injuries and has been productive, rushing for 198 yards against Rutgers, 126 vs. Northwestern and 97 vs. Oregon. Lindenberg leads the Gophers with 90 tackles and is coming off back-to-back 14-tackle games.

Gophers RBs vs. Wisconsin LB Christian Alliegro

Darius Taylor and Marcus Major combined for 27 carries and 95 yards against Penn State’s tough run defense last week. The Badgers rank 17th in the Big Ten in rush defense (163.4 yards allowed per game), so the Gophers could have opportunities. Alliegro has three consecutive games of double-digit tackles.

Plus-10

The Gophers’ turnover margin, which ranks second in the Big Ten. Wisconsin’s margin is minus-6, 16th in the conference.

With wind gusts of up to 30 mph, passing might be difficult, so it would behoove the Gophers to get Taylor and Major going against that Badgers run defense. Ball security, as always, is key for Minnesota, which has a plus-15 turnover margin in its wins. On defense, pressuring QB Braedyn Locke and limiting Walker are musts.

Holding Taylor in check in both the run game and short passing game is Wisconsin’s best recipe for victory. The elements could make it difficult to pass downfield, so eliminating Max Brosmer’s safety valve will help. Locke passed for 292 yards and three TDs at Nebraska, so he could be the X factor.

Whichever team scores first will have a big advantage in this game, with the weather likely being a factor. The Gophers are 5-2 when scoring first this season but 1-3 when the opponent scores first. A fast start with Brosmer finding wideouts Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer in intermediate routes should open things up for the running game. Punter Mark Crawford will be key for field position purposes, and kicker Dragan Kesich could be a difference-maker with his big left leg.

My expectation: Expect a tight game because that’s what the Gophers play this season no matter the opponent. Wisconsin has desperation on its side, but the Gophers bring the slightly better team. Gophers 24, Wisconsin 20