Scoggins: Word is Mark Coyle wants to build Gophers men’s basketball. What does it mean for Ben Johnson?

Mark Coyle is a member of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament selection committee, which means the Gophers athletic director will be tasked with helping choose the field and 68-team bracket for that grand spectacle in a few weeks.

Coyle faces an important decision with his own men’s basketball program in the coming days as well: Stick with Ben Johnson for a fifth season, or start over with a new coach?

The Gophers battled the 12th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers to the final seconds Wednesday, but a seven-point loss means the Gophers will need to win at Rutgers in the finale to avoid the third losing regular season under Johnson.

Coyle does not make it a practice to comment publicly on a coach’s job status during the season, so I’m not certain if he has made a final decision.

However, my conversations with people connected to the athletic department have shed light on a critical piece to the puzzle: Coyle plans to be aggressive in how much of the $20.5 million in revenue-sharing gets allocated to men’s basketball.

The goal, sources say, is for men’s basketball to rank in the top third of the Big Ten in revenue-sharing, which would close the gap on competitors in name, image and likeness (NIL) distribution to players.

The Gophers desperately need more success, and more revenue generated, from men’s basketball. Coyle seems willing and determined to invest financially to jumpstart that program.

The question becomes, will Johnson get another year with more resources, or will Coyle pay a nearly $3 million buyout and look for a replacement knowing the roster will require another personnel makeover with so many departing seniors?

Final approval from a judge on the House vs. NCAA settlement is expected in April, clearing the way for schools to pay athletes directly.

The assumption is that many schools in the two largest conferences (Big Ten and SEC) will devote 85% to 90% of that $20.5 million to football and men’s basketball, given that those two programs are the main revenue producers for athletic departments.

Gophers officials envision $5 million to $6 million as the target for the men’s basketball roster when combining revenue-sharing and true NIL (Dinkytown Athletes collective).

There are examples of schools failing to honor NIL promises, which creates messy situations. Minnesota’s athletic department hasn’t fallen into that hole. The Gophers pay what they pledge to athletes. Now that investment needs to increase.

The Gophers have been unable to retain key players under Johnson, because they lag in NIL for men’s basketball. University sources note that football coach P.J. Fleck was far more forceful and vocal initially in expressing the dire consequences of falling behind in the NIL race, which helped his program make up ground quickly. Struggles in men’s basketball contributed to a chilling effect in NIL support for that program.

Men’s basketball, more than any other college sport, has become transactional. Money is a driving force in constructing rosters. Either spend or get left behind. It’s that simple.

We can debate for days the different reasons why the basketball program has struggled historically, but the current product simply is not good enough.

Coyle worked at Kentucky and served as AD at Syracuse. He understands the value of a successful basketball program. As a member of the tournament selection committee, he studies different programs through intimate access to the sport. You think he doesn’t fume having to sit in those meetings and select teams for the tournament, knowing his own program is languishing?

Winning matters to him. Optics matter. Fan apathy is one of the factors in his decision to fire football coach Tracy Claeys in 2017. Coyle was worried and bothered when he looked out and saw rows of empty seats at Huntington Bank Stadium on gameday.

Fan apathy has settled into men’s basketball. The Gophers were averaging 8,606 fans at Williams Arena going into the home finale after averaging 8,140 last season, which was the lowest mark since 1969-70.

The program needs a jolt. Revenue-sharing at $20-plus million annually raises the pressure on athletic departments to be successful in football and men’s basketball. Johnson is a nice guy who got dealt a tough hand with the timing of his hiring during the vortex of NIL, but his program’s popularity has plummeted in this crowded sports market.

The roster under Johnson has resembled a revolving door. Players leave, new players come in, rinse and repeat. The lack of continuity has contributed to the struggles, especially when the replacements don’t equal the departures in talent. Retention is vital in the NIL world.

The Gophers must squeeze every nickel possible out of men’s basketball for the financial health and vitality of the athletic department. Making a strong commitment in revenue-sharing to attract better talent is one component to that formula. Coyle must decide if that alone is enough.