Gophers men’s hockey knows it’s NCAA tournament bound; St. Cloud State, Bemidji State have work to do

If you’re looking for drama involving Minnesota’s Division I men’s hockey teams, there will be varying degrees available this weekend.

For the Gophers, there shouldn’t be any drama until Sunday, when the 16-team NCAA tournament field is announced. The Gophers lost 2-1 to Michigan in a Big Ten semifinal on Saturday but are safely in the national tournament. They’re No. 8 in the PairWise computer ratings, which help fill and seed the NCAA field, and likely will be one of the four No. 2 seeds.

At Bemidji State, there will be win-or-go-home drama on Friday night, when the Beavers play Michigan Tech for the CCHA tournament championship. The winner takes the Mason Cup and one of the six automatic NCAA bids that go to conference tournament champions.

In St. Paul, the drama involves St. Cloud State, which will play in the NCHC Frozen Four semifinals, and Colorado College, which didn’t earn a trip to Xcel Energy Center.

St. Cloud State, which beat Western Michigan 5-1 on Sunday to win an NCHC quarterfinal series, is No. 17 in the PairWise, and that puts the Huskies on the outside looking in, at least for now. They’ll try to change that by beating No. 4 Denver during Friday’s 7:30 p.m. semifinal, and a win might land the Huskies a spot in the NCAA field. Friday’s 4 p.m. semifinal matches North Dakota vs. Nebraska Omaha. The winners meet at 7:30 p.m. Saturday for the NCHC title and automatic NCAA bid.

Colorado College is No. 14 in the PairWise, and as of now is the last team in the NCAA field. The Tigers’ problem, though, is they won’t be in St. Paul with a chance to improve their record after losing 2-1 to Nebraska Omaha on Sunday. They need Denver to beat St. Cloud State, which would eliminate the Huskies’ NCAA chances.

Here is a conference-by-conference breakdown of teams’ chances to make the NCAA tournament:

NCHC (five NCAA bids): No. 3 North Dakota, No. 4 Denver and 11 Nebraska Omaha are safely in the NCAA field, while Western Michigan has a 99% chance, according to College Hockey News’ PairWise Probability Matrix, which runs 20,000 simulations of the remaining games. That leaves St. Cloud State (21%) or Colorado College (49%) in the mix for a spot. Both St. Cloud State and Colorado College also will be hoping No. 15 Cornell loses in the ECAC tournament.

Big Ten (four NCAA bids): No. 5 Michigan State and No. 10 Michigan will play Saturday for the Big Ten title and the automatic bid. The Spartans-Wolverines loser, the No. 8 Gophers and No. 9 Wisconsin are safely in the NCAA field.

Hockey East (four NCAA bids): No. 1 Boston College, No. 2 Boston University and No. 6 Maine are locks for the NCAA field, and No. 12 Massachusetts has a 91% chance of getting in, according to the PairWise matrix.

ECAC (one NCAA bid): Defending national champion Quinnipiac is safely in the NCAA field at No. 7 in the PairWise. The top-seeded Bobcats face St. Lawrence in the ECAC semifinals, while Cornell takes on Dartmouth. At No. 15 in the PairWise, Cornell needs at least one win to reach the NCAA tournament.

CCHA (one NCAA bid): No. 35 Michigan Tech and No. 31 Bemidji State meet Friday for an automatic NCAA bid.

Atlantic Hockey (one NCAA bid): No. 21 Rochester Institute of Technology faces No. 25 American International for an automatic NCAA bid.

The NCAA men’s tournament field will be announced at 5:30 p.m. Sunday on ESPNU and ESPN-Plus. The men’s Frozen Four will be April 11-13 at Xcel Energy Center. Here’s a projection of the field in the four regionals:

Providence, R.I.

1. Boston College vs. 4. Colorado College

2. Maine vs. 3. Wisconsin

Springfield, Mass.

1. Boston University vs. 4. Western Michigan

2. Michigan State vs. 3. Massachusetts

Sioux Falls, S.D.

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bemidji State

2. Gophers vs. 3. Nebraska Omaha

Maryland Heights, Mo.

1. Denver vs. 4. RIT

2. Quinnipiac vs. 3. Michigan