Gophers on letdown alert vs. Michigan State. Randy Johnson's prediction and preview
The last time the Gophers faced a scandal-ridden team, they collapsed in the fourth quarter against Northwestern.
October 27, 2023 at 12:27PM
• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
• TV/Radio: BTN, 100.3-FM
• Line: Gophers by 7
Fresh off their emotional, 12-10 victory at Iowa, the Gophers (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) face Michigan State (2-5, 0-4), which has lost five consecutive games since firing coach Mel Tucker. The Gophers' next three opponents — the Spartans, Illinois (3-5) and Purdue (2-5) — are a combined 7-15.
Three big story lines
Will there be a letdown after the win over Iowa? The Gophers hadn't beaten Iowa since 2014 and were 0-6 against the Hawkeyes under coach P.J. Fleck before Saturday, so the raucous celebration at Kinnick Stadium was expected. They have turned their focus to the Spartans after drubbing them 34-7 last year in East Lansing.
What will the Gophers backfield look like? Darius Taylor and Zach Evans, who rank first and third on the team in rushing yards, both left the Iowa game because of leg injuries, and their status for Saturday's game isn't certain. If they can't play, look for senior Sean Tyler and sophomore Jordan Nubin to get the bulk of the carries.
Has the Gophers defense turned the corner? The Minnesota defense limited Iowa to 127 total yards, including only 11 rushing yards on 28 carries (0.39 yards per carry). Granted, that came against a Hawkeyes offense that ranks last nationally in average yards gained, but it still was a solid rebound from the 52-10 loss to Michigan.
Two key matchups
Gophers pass rush vs. MSU QB Katin Houser
The Gophers sacked Deacon Hill, Iowa's immobile QB, four times and swiped the ball from him twice. Houser, a redshirt freshman, was solid in a 27-24 loss to Rutgers on Oct. 14, going 18-for-29 for 133 yards and two TDs. He also showed his mobility by rushing 12 yards for a TD.
Gophers WR Daniel Jackson vs. MSU DB Malik Spencer
Jackson has emerged as the Gophers' go-to receiver this season, and he leads the team with 29 catches for 387 yards and five touchdowns after catching seven passes for 101 yards at Iowa. Spencer ranks second on Michigan State in tackles with 26 and has four pass breakups.
One stat that matters
-8
Michigan State's turnover margin, tied for last in the Big Ten. The Spartans have thrown nine interceptions and lost eight fumbles.
The Gophers will win if … they finish drives against a defense that won't be as stout as the one they faced in Iowa; they get enough from the passing game to take pressure off a banged-up running back group; they continue to improve on defense and pressure Houser; and they win the turnover battle.
The Spartans will win if … they score early to put some doubt in the Gophers' minds; they protect Houser to the point he can stretch the field; they get 100 yards from running back Nathan Carter, the Big Ten's third-leading rusher; they force the Gophers to kick field goals; and they grab a couple of takeaways.
Prediction
The last time the Gophers faced a program going through a scandal that forced the ouster of the head coach, things didn't work out too well. Northwestern rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit and stunned Minnesota 37-34 in overtime. Can the Spartans follow suit? Yes, if the Gophers play a poor game. That shouldn't happen, though, with a defense that's getting a good pass rush and has safety Tyler Nubin playing at a high level. If QB Athan Kaliakmanis can build off his second half at Iowa, a win should follow.
My expectation: The Gophers get a solid defensive effort and a better offensive showing than they did in Iowa.
Gophers 20, Michigan State 13
Penn State, a winner by 56 against the U last season, is next up in the now-brawnier conference.
