Do Gophers have an upset formula for No. 2 Michigan? Randy Johnson's prediction
The Gophers are nearly three-touchdown underdogs against a Michigan team that looks headed toward a third consecutive College Football Playoff.
October 6, 2023 at 11:47AM
• Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
• TV/Radio: NBC, 100.3-FM
• Line: Michigan by 20
In what might be the best team the Gophers have faced in coach P.J. Fleck's seven years at Minnesota, the Wolverines come to town as favorites to win their third consecutive Big Ten championship and are positioned to make the College Football Playoff for the third time in a row.
Three big story lines
How do you stop Michigan? The Wolverines (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) boast a highly efficient quarterback in J.J. McCarthy (79% completions), a running back in Blake Corum who's tied for the national lead with nine rushing TDs and an offensive line that's considered the best in the nation. That adds up to a team averaging 34.4 points.
How do you score on Michigan? Opponents have scored a total of 30 points — fewest in the nation — against the Wolverines, and none of the five foes had more than seven points. Michigan has limited opponents to 245.8 yards per game (fourth best in FBS) and has given up only three TDs.
Will Athan Kaliakmanis continue to improve? The Gophers redshirt sophomore quarterback has completed 26 of 33 passes for 337 yards and four TDs with one interception over his past two games. He hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Michigan's, and Minnesota will need him to be sharp again to have any upset hopes.
Two key matchups
Gophers linebackers vs. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams have played extensively in the absence of the injured Cody Lindenberg, and the Gophers will need the duo to be sharp against McCarthy, who averages 7.3 yards per rush and can extend plays with his feet. If Lindenberg can play, the Gophers get a lift.
Gophers OT Aireontae Ersery vs. Michigan edge rusher Josaiah Stewart
Stewart, a transfer from Coastal Carolina, has made an immediate impact at Michigan by collecting 13 tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks in five games. Ersery is tasked with protecting Kaliakmanis' blind side, and he could see Stewart often on Saturday.
One stat that matters
3 Red-zone scores allowed by Michigan (one TD, two field goals). Opponents have made only eight trips into the Wolverines red zone.
The Gophers will win if … they force multiple turnovers by Michigan and cash them in for touchdowns; they get an early lead and shorten the game with a running game that produces long drives; their defense avoids allowing explosive plays through 60 minutes; and their special teams make a positive difference in key moments.
The Wolverines will win if … they establish their dominance by scoring early and taking the Gophers' run game away; if McCarthy is his usual accurate self and avoids turnovers; if Corum and fellow running back Donovan Edwards keep the chains moving and keep Minnesota's offense on the sideline.
Prediction
Upon first glance, this appears to be a mismatch. Michigan just routed Nebraska 45-7 in Lincoln, while the Gophers needed two late turnovers and a last-minute, 47-yard field goal to edge the Cornhuskers 13-10. While the Wolverines schedule has been far from daunting — Rutgers is the best team Michigan has played so far — they have been winning by an average of four touchdowns. So, upon second glance, yep, it's still a mismatch. The Gophers will need too much to go their way to secure the upset.
My expectation: The Gophers produce a solid effort, but Michigan takes an early lead, keeps Minnesota at arm's length and pulls away in the second half.
Michigan 41, Gophers 13
Basketball Across Minnesota: Aaliyah Crump, who committed to Texas, is spending her senior year at Montverde Academy in Florida on a team filled with Division I recruits.
