Greenhouse gas emissions grow in latest data, throwing Minnesota off target for climate goals

Minnesota is off track to meet its goals for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for climate change after the end of the pandemic saw a sharp rise in pollution from cars, trucks and other transportation.

State data released Thursday shows overall emissions rose 6.4% between the end of 2020 and the end of 2022.

“As we returned to the pre-pandemic routines, emissions that dropped steeply in 2020 rebounded,” Katrina Kessler, commissioner of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA), said at a news conference. “The trend that we’re seeing in Minnesota is reflected across the nation.”

Published every two years, the previous report showed Minnesota was for the first time on a path to the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Gov. Tim Walz has made slashing climate pollution a top priority, and on Thursday, his Cabinet said the latest data does not reflect the impact of recent significant state and federal spending, as well as regulations aimed at stemming the effect of climate change.

Emissions dropped 14% from 2005 through 2022. The MPCA said there is still a downward trend over the long term, especially as electric utilities close coal plants and shift toward carbon-free power.

But the report illustrates the difficulty of eliminating planet-warming emissions, especially in a state with a large agriculture sector, plenty of heavy industry and a population hesitant to buy electric vehicles or stop using natural gas for home heating.

Minnesota’s single-largest source of greenhouse gases, making up 29% of total emissions, remains the transportation sector — principally cars, trucks, planes, trains and boats.

Transportation-related emissions jumped 13% from 2020 through 2022. Kessler said more pollution is coming from heavy-duty vehicles, such as delivery vans, large commercial vehicles and tractor trailers, than before the pandemic, though total emissions from transportation have not yet reached pre-pandemic levels.

Walz’s administration has tried to boost electric vehicles, including by approving new auto emissions regulations in 2021. The Legislature in 2023 also approved nearly $16 million for electric vehicle rebates.

Minnesotans bought a record number of electric vehicles in 2024, with the help of federal tax credits passed under former President Joe Biden, but the state is still behind the national average.

President Donald Trump has since taken steps to cut back on regulations that promote electric vehicles.

Emissions from Minnesota agriculture were roughly the same in 2022 as in 2005 and are the second-largest source of climate pollution at roughly 25%.

Greenhouse gas emissions from farming come primarily from fertilizer use, livestock digestion and manure storage. Kessler said some crop practices are capturing and storing emissions, and that “improved efficiency and sustainable agricultural practices” have kept emissions from rising as the state produces more food and other products.

Kessler noted that the Environmental Protection Agency in July announced a $200 million grant to fund Minnesota efforts to cut farm emissions, and said the state is “under contract” for that money. She said Minnesota “will insist that those contracts are honored,” even though Trump has moved to freeze or eliminate climate spending.

Minnesota’s electric sector has made by far the most progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and was down 50% over 2005 levels in the latest report with 2022 data.

The state’s utilities are shutting down coal plants and replacing that energy in part with wind and solar. This data was counted before 2023 when Democrats in the Legislature passed landmark regulations aimed at a carbon-free grid by 2040.

Still, emissions from the electric sector rose 4% from 2020 though 2022 as the economy picked up after the COVID slowdown.

Emissions produced by heavy industry and the heating of homes and businesses rose 7% from 2020 through 2022.

Arnold said slashing heating emissions in Minnesota’s climate will be hard, though the state has passed some rebates and taken other steps to promote technology, such as electric heat pumps.