Harris should take some risks — in Iowa

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Vice President Kamala Harris has run a near-pitch-perfect campaign for the past two months, setting a blistering pace for everything she has had to accomplish, including a high-stakes debate in which she dominated rival Donald Trump.

But you can run a mostly error-free campaign and still lose.

It’s time for Harris to take risks, and Iowa might be the perfect setting.

The latest Iowa Poll showed Harris was within four percentage points of overtaking Trump. As recently as June, when President Joe Biden was still the nominee, the same poll showed him trailing Trump by 18 percentage points, making the state so safe Trump barely had to think about it. There’s a case to be made for Harris to make a power play for the state, perhaps by holding a splashy rally or town hall that reintroduces her to Iowans.

Trump did something similar in Minnesota in May, startling Democrats there with a bold prediction that he would win a state that hadn’t voted Republican in a presidential race in more than a half century.

A close poll had convinced the former president he could expand his electoral map and produce the “too big to rig” victory he craves.

“We want a landslide in your state,” he said during a fundraising speech in St. Paul in May. After his nominating convention, he returned to the state with his new running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, for a rally in more conservative central Minnesota.

Trump was riding high then, confident that he was opening a big electoral lead against Biden. He pledged to follow up with field offices and resources, but the latter never happened. Harris replaced Biden in late July; now, Trump is back on his heels.

But Harris could use a dash of Trump’s swagger to flip the script on him and force him to play a little defense.

The poll shows Harris has opened a 17-point lead among Iowa women, much of it centering on the Democrat’s top issue: reproductive rights.

The survey came just weeks after the state’s six-week abortion ban — one of the harshest in the nation — went into effect, even though more than 60% of Iowans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, including 70% of all women.

Iowa swooned over Trump when he burst on the scene in the 2016 race. He won the state by nearly 10 points that year. In 2020, the Hawkeye State came through for him again, though he eventually lost to Biden.

Iowans can be fickle. President Barack Obama scored decisive wins in the state in 2008 and 2012. In 2004, they embraced George W. Bush and his brand of “compassionate conservatism.” In 2000, they chose Vice President Al Gore.

Iowa hasn’t been considered a swing state this year, but the shift here has been dramatic. And there appears to be an Obama-like surge of enthusiasm for Harris brewing among the state’s Democrats.

The largest Teamsters unit in the state endorsed Harris on Friday, defying the International Teamsters Union, which decided not to endorse either candidate. Dawn Roberts, Iowa co-chair of the Nikki Haley for President campaign and a lifelong Republican, said she will vote for Harris.

Harris is in a vastly different position than she was in 2019 when she first made a serious bid for president in a campaign that did poorly in Iowa.

Ads and staged appearances, like last Thursday night’s social media event with Oprah, are good, but Iowans typically have demanded more. During her brief 2020 campaign, Harris developed a reputation for being overly cautious and unwilling to stake out controversial positions.

This time, Harris has exceeded expectations and is closing the gap with Trump. She has a small but persistent lead in several polls.

But some of her previous reputation for playing it safe clings to her. She has limited not only press interviews but also unscripted appearances.

That strategy has worked well so far, but now it’s time to shake things up. Reintroducing herself to Iowans in a personal and substantive way could be the ticket.

It would also send a signal to Trump, who even now is making a longshot bid for New York, reinforcing his image as someone who swings for the fences.

Deanne Edwards, 58, a Democrat from Des Moines, told me that when she saw Harris during her 2020 campaign, “I thought she was lovely, but honestly was not that impressed.”

Edwards said Harris lacked great messaging, and her speeches felt forced. This time, she said, “something has switched. She’s so much more dynamic, presidential. She has great command of the issues now. I think people would turn out in droves to see her if she came to Iowa.”

At a 2019 campaign event in Waterloo, Harris said: “Iowa has a long tradition and history of expecting the candidates to spend time here and that folks get to know you. I’m prepared to make that investment.”

There isn’t much time left. She should make that investment again. It could pay dividends far beyond Iowa and its six electoral votes.

Patricia Lopez is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. She is a former member of the Editorial Board at the Minnesota Star Tribune, where she also worked as a senior political editor and reporter.