Heftier GOP majorities in Arizona Legislature could imperil Democratic governor's agenda

PHOENIX — Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs had hoped fellow Democrats would make enough gains during this month's election to flip one or both chambers of a state Legislature Republicans narrowly controlled, easing the path for her policy agenda ahead of a 2026 reelection campaign.

Instead, the opposite happened.

Rather than lose their legislative majorities in the state, Republicans expanded them. And even some more moderate Republicans who were willing to work with Hobbs on some issues lost their seats — not to Democrats in the general election but to hard-line conservatives in the GOP primary.

It was evidence the national red wave that allowed former President Donald Trump to win another term in the White House and Republicans to retake the Senate had reached Arizona, too. Although Democrat Ruben Gallego narrowly won the state's open U.S. Senate race, Trump carried Arizona this time, four years after losing it to President Joe Biden.

Barrett Marson, a GOP strategist in the state, predicted Hobbs' legislative agenda would be one of the casualties of the Republican gains.

''She may have to work with the Republican Legislature a little bit more than probably she has in the past or would like to, so there are some things she may have to swallow that she didn't want to,'' Marson said, adding there are bills she might have to sign because it's ''good politics'' for a reelection campaign.

Although Hobbs' staff insists she'll keep working across the aisle in the way she's always done, Republicans are signaling it could be much tougher sledding this year for Democratic plans to expand reproductive rights, ease voting access and deal with the state's water shortage.

Hobbs played an active role in attempting to flip the chambers to Democrats. In the 2024 election cycle, her political action committee raised even more than the $500,000 she'd promised to help bankroll Democratic candidates and participated in more than two dozen events to boost them.

''It is so important to tell voters to vote all the way down their ballot,'' Hobbs said last month, rallying a crowd of about 75 volunteers gearing up to canvass in a north Phoenix district she called ''ground zero'' for flipping the Legislature.

Democrat Judy Schweibert, a former teacher and state representative who was running for state Senate, was among the candidates Hobbs supported. Republican Shawnna Bolick, who local officials had appointed to seat, defeated Schweibert to retain it.

Republicans are poised to use their expanded majority to push forward with an agenda stacked with conservative issues, including school choice and border security, said House Speaker-elect Steve Montenegro.

Montenegro cited the 2024 GOP gains as evidence that Hobbs is out of touch with Arizona voters and said he aimed to build on the successes of outgoing Republican leadership.

Under Hobbs' tenure, Republicans have largely stalled any Democratic policy agenda she's tried to push forth. In the most recent legislative session, Republican lawmakers knocked down Hobbs' attempt to rein in the school voucher program expansion that had been ballooning the deficit. Even in the latest round of budget cuts, the program was trimmed by just $2.5 million.

"Even though the Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars to try to flip chambers, they were unsuccessful,'' Montenegro said. ''The people of Arizona rejected that messaging.''

In the eyes of Democrats, Montenegro veers even further to the right than outgoing House Speaker Ben Toma, the architect of a ballot measure that would let local police arrest migrants suspected of illegally entering the state from Mexico. Arizona voters passed the measure, but the enforcement of some of its provisions depends on the legal fate of the Texas law it mirrors.

Democratic strategist DJ Quinlan called Montenegro a ''bomb thrower," saying that he believes Montenegro is willing to send Hobbs more socially conservative bills than Toma, particularly on reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ rights, that are destined to fail through a Hobbs veto.

Quinlan said while the dynamics of divided government are largely the same, gone are the voices of more moderate conservatives. Among them was state Sen. Ken Bennett, who has sided with Democrats to defeat an anti-transgender ballot referral earlier this year. He lost the GOP primary to Mark Finchem, a staunch supporter of the false claim that former President Donald Trump lost his 2020 reelection due to widespread fraud.

With Republicans expanding their majorities, one of Hobbs' only ways to circumvent the Legislature is by signing executive actions.

''I think she's going to look for every opportunity to advance her agenda as well, in some cases that may need to be through utilizing her authority as governor,'' Quinlan said.

Hobbs has made a recent step toward exercising more of her executive authority to advance her party's priorities. She and the Arizona Department of Water Resources made the first move toward regulating the use of groundwater in the rural southeastern part of the state.

In her first two years in office, Hobbs vetoed 216 Republican-backed bills, including one that would have compelled public schools not to refer to transgender students by their chosen names or pronouns. Another would have allowed parents with concealed-carry permits to be shielded from prosecution if they brought their firearms into gun-free zones. Marson said he expects to see more vetoes from Hobbs in the upcoming session.

Sam Paisley, a spokesperson for the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said large amounts of advertising money spent on the presidential race and contentious ballot issues made it costly and difficult for down-ballot legislative candidates to build name identification with the public. She added that Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to not cast votes in down-ballot races.

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