History says Wild has series edge — but Game 2 will tell real story

Wild players and coaches will likely tell you that the team's playoff history — a 28-50 record — has little bearing on what happens this year.

That's true to a large extent, particularly since the team's roster has been significantly remade in the last couple seasons.

Some relevant history can be found, though, in larger sample of how NHL teams have fared through the years in different scenarios in the playoffs. The significance of Sunday's 1-0 Wild overtime win over Vegas in Game 1 of their series cannot be overstated, and it was discussed in detail on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast with both Sarah McLellan and Patrick Reusse.

If you don't see the podcast player, click here to listen.

Per Hockey Reference, when the road team in a seven-game NHL series wins Game 1, as the Wild did on Sunday, that team goes on to win the series 57.1% of the time. Conversely, when the home team wins, the home team goes on to win the series a whopping 75.6% of the time. Just 30% of road teams win Game 1 of playoff series, so the Wild accomplished a feat.

That said, Game 2 could fundamentally change the series even more. If Vegas comes back and wins the second game Tuesday, history says the Golden Knights move back into a slight favorite — as home teams winning that game after dropping Game 1 have taken the series 55.5% of the time.

Conversely, if the Wild can win a second game in Vegas, history says it will have an 80% chance of winning the series.

So Tuesday's game will either establish the Wild as slight underdogs or overwhelming favorites for the rest of the series.

Of course, the Wild might be in slightly more favorable territory anyway because it is relatively evenly matched with Vegas both in the standings and head-to-head this season. The NHL's historical data factors in all matchups — and certainly includes some series that were more lopsided going in.