Hot Monday Ahead Followed By Much Needed Rain Tuesday

Another hot summer day is ahead on Monday in the Twin Cities as highs will once again climb into the mid-90s under mainly sunny skies.

Not a drop of rain is expected across the state for the federal holiday Monday with mainly sunny skies and highs climbing into the 80s and 90s.

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As we head into Monday we will also be tracking air quality concerns in northern Minnesota due to wildfire smoke in the air. Here is more information from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency:

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has issued an air quality alert for northeast Minnesota, effective Monday, July 5, beginning at 6 a.m. through Tuesday, July 6, at 8 a.m. The affected area includes International Falls, Bemidji, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, and the tribal nations of Fond du Lac, Grand Portage, Leech Lake, and Red Lake.

Smoke from wildfires located about 100 miles north of the Canadian border in Ontario and Manitoba will be transported by northwest winds behind a cold front into the northeast part of the state. Heavy smoke is expected to arrive Monday morning and will remain over the area through Tuesday morning. During this time, fine particle levels are expected to be in the Orange AQI category, a level that is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. Moderate to heavy rainfall along with northeast winds are forecasted across the northern half of the state on Tuesday. These conditions will dissipate the smoke plume over the state.

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After our steamy Independence Day weekend, we will see below average highs work in from Tuesday through the end of the week. The coolest day will be Wednesday with upper 70s for highs.

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We need some rain, and thankfully we will see what looks like a good soaking rain as we head into the Tuesday/Tuesday Night timeframe. As a system pushes across the upper Midwest, we should see a band of at least half an inch to an inch of rain Tuesday into Tuesday Night, with some of the heaviest falling across central Minnesota. The good news is another widespread rain looks possible Thursday Night into Friday, with some models showing the potential of at least 1-2" falling near I-94.

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A Smoking Hot 5th of July Shaping Up
By Paul Douglas

Factoring both wind chill and heat index, today will FEEL about 135 degrees warmer than it did back in February, give or take. I expect mid-90s and a few records today, before we cool off later this week. Talk about good timing.

Meteorologists routinely sweat out the 4th of July forecast because so many people are outdoors, at the mercy of the elements. We want to be right every day, especially the biggest weekend of summer. I'm routinely reminded of a 4th of July forecast I made in college, predicting "a little drizzle". It POURED for 12 hours and locals back home still remind me of that forecasting disaster. It's a steep learning curve.

A swelteringly-sunny Monday is followed by half an inch of showers and storms Tuesday. ECMWF prints out a stripe of 1-2 inch amounts over central Minnesota. I hope it's right.

We cool into the 70s later this week with more precious puddles Friday, and comfortable weather next weekend.

Meanwhile "Elsa" looks unimpressive, sparking minor Tuesday flooding across Florida.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and hot. Wake up 75. High 95. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Showers and T-storms likely. Wake up 73. High 80. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and comfortable. Wake up 58. High 75. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Plenty of lukewarm sunshine. Wake up 57. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: Another round of thunderstorms. Wake up 66. High 78. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Gradual clearing, feels good out there. Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 57. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 5th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 29 minutes and 3 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 0 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight? July 24th (14 hours, 58 minutes, and 22 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 5th

1999: Flooding occurs over the Arrowhead. The largest 24-hour rainfall total is 8.84 inches in central St. Louis County.

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On Monday, we'll be watching some showers and storms with a stalled boundary across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, with showers and storms especially later in the day to the overnight hours in the Northern Plains. Storms will also be possible across the Rockies, Northeast, and Great Lakes. Eyes continue to focus on Elsa, which will be crossing Cuba on Monday.

Through Tuesday evening, the heaviest rain will fall along portions of the Gulf Coast where over 3" of rain will be possible. In Florida, that'll be due to the approach of Elsa.

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Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Sunday morning, July 4th, 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa. Elsa became a bit disorganized yesterday due to its fast movement, causing it to weaken to a tropical storm. This morning Elsa is reorganizing as the system has slower forward momentum with the eye reforming under the strongest convection. As of 8 AM ET, Elsa was sitting awfully close to Jamaica, with the center of circulation located about 45 miles east-northeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or 145 miles southeast of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. Elsa had sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving west-northwest at 13 mph.

Elsa Track. Elsa will continue to track close to Jamaica and eastern Cuba this morning, nearing portions of central and western Cuba late today through tonight. The intensity of Elsa over the next 24 hours or so will likely be dependent on how close the center of Elsa gets to Jamaica and Cuba. If it approaches too close to these islands, the center could be disturbed due to the higher terrain and weakening would be possible. If it moves far enough away from the islands, we would likely see some strengthening of Elsa. On Monday, we should see Elsa cross Cuba with some weakening occur due to land interaction and an increase in upper-level winds. Elsa will then approach the Florida Keys Monday Night and move along the western coast of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday before making landfall potentially near Tampa early Wednesday morning. Between the time that Elsa exits Cuba and makes landfall along the Florida Peninsula only slight restrengthening is currently expected. Elsa will bring disruptive impacts along its path including heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Alerts. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, as well as Hurricane Watches, are in place along the expected track of Elsa over the next couple of days. This does include Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Florida Keys. I would expect additional watches to be issued later today across portions of Florida. As of 8 AM ET, here were the watches and warnings in place:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos

* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

Arrival Of Tropical Storm Force Winds. As Elsa moves northward, tropical storm force wind gusts (39+ mph) are expected across Florida during the first half of the week. These winds will begin late Monday across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida Peninsula with these winds spreading northward Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As Elsa starts to accelerate northeastward, tropical storm force wind gusts will be possible across the eastern Mid-Atlantic from late Wednesday into Thursday.

Rainfall Potential. Heavy rain continues to be a major story with Elsa, particularly in the Caribbean. Areas of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba could see at least 4-8" of rain with isolated 15" amounts that will lead to flash flooding and mudslides. In the Cayman Islands through Monday 3-5" could fall leading to some flooding in spots. Through Wednesday, at least 2-4" of rain with isolated 6" amounts will be possible across the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula, leading to the threat of flooding.

Storm Surge Potential. We are also watching the storm surge potential across the Caribbean and Florida due to Elsa. In areas of onshore flow across the southern coast of Cuba this storm surge could be 3-5 feet and along the southern coast of Hispaniola could be 2-4 feet. Across the Florida Keys, the storm surge and tide would allow normally dry areas to be flooding by water coming inland. If the peak surge occurred at high tide, a storm surge of 1-2 feet would be possible.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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Severe drought taking its toll on Maine farmers

More from WGME-TV: "Much of Maine is now in a severe drought, and it has taken its toll on farmers. "This is as dry as I've seen it in the last 15 years," Ricker Hill Orchards Farm Manager Andy Ricker said. With such a dry season, Ricker is seeing smaller apples in his family's orchards. "There's not as much growth on these as I'd like to see this time of year. Part of that is drought-related," Ricker said. "They're coming along, but that's a little over an inch, inch and a quarter maybe. I'd like to see that closer to an inch and a half for this time of the summer, but we take what we can get.""

June Brought Record Heat To Death Valley National Park

More from National Parks Traveler: "June brought record heat to Death Valley National Park, where the average daily temperature reached 102.9 degrees Fahrenheit, far above the normal average June temperature of 95 degrees. The average temperature for June is based on records dating to 1912. Every June for the past decade has exceeded this average, the park said in a release. This June 2021 beat the previous record average temperature for the month by 1.1°F. The heat wave that affected much of the West in mid-June peaked at 128°F in Death Valley on June 17, which broke the daily record by six degrees. Seven days in the month set daily records for high temperatures."

Is global plastic pollution nearing an irreversible tipping point?

More from Stockholm University: "Current rates of plastic emissions globally may trigger effects that we will not be able to reverse, argues a new study by researchers from Sweden, Norway and Germany published on July 2nd in Science. According to the authors, plastic pollution is a global threat, and actions to drastically reduce emissions of plastic to the environment are "the rational policy response". Plastic is found everywhere on the planet: from deserts and mountaintops to deep oceans and Arctic snow. As of 2016, estimates of global emissions of plastic to the world's lakes, rivers and oceans ranged from 9 to 23 million metric tons per year, with a similar amount emitted onto land yearly. These estimates are expected to almost double by 2025 if business-as-usual scenarios apply."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser