Hot Through The Fourth With Some Strong Storms

As we head into the day before the 4th of July, we will see the hottest day of the year so far as highs climb into the mid-90s. While we will start with mainly sunny skies, a few storms will be possible later in the afternoon and evening hours.

While an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out in the morning hours Monday across eastern or southern Minnesota, a better chance of a few storms during the day will be in the afternoon hours out in western Minnesota. Highs range from the 60s along the North Shore to the mid-90s across parts of central and southern Minnesota.

Forecast loop from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

As mentioned above, a few scattered showers are possible in eastern and southern Minnesota early Monday morning. However, it'll be in the late afternoon and evening hours that we really watch the next round of storms, some of which be strong to severe - especially in central and southern Minnesota.

A few of the storms could the on the strong side that we see later Monday into Monday Night, with a Marginal Risk of severe threat (threat level 1/5) for the metro and Slight Risk (2/5) in western Minnesota. Hail and wind will be the primary threats across the entire severe risk area.

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Forecast loop from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.

We will watch more scattered showers and storms as we head through Independence Day across Minnesota - including here in the metro - with some strong to severe.

Once again we'll be tracking the threat for strong to severe storms, with a Slight Risk extended from southern Minnesota to the North Shore. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

As we look statewide for your Independence Day, we'll watch that shower and storm chance at times throughout the day. Highs range from the 60s along the North Shore to around 90F in southern Minnesota.

Looking at the metro into the evening hours for BBQs and fireworks, we'll have that storm chance around with temperatures dropping through the 80s into the 70s by the time we see any man-made fireworks (if storms allow us to do so).

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As we look past the Fourth of July, that slower-moving cold front which will have caused our storm chances to begin the week will finally have pushed through the region - almost. The front still will be lingering in southeastern Minnesota Wednesday morning, which will lead to scattered showers and storms lingering across particularly eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin during the day. Highs will be cooler, though, only reaching the mid-70s. That'll be the coolest day of the week, with highs returning to the upper 70s for Thursday and Friday with some afternoon passing clouds expected both days.

A few of the storms in far southeastern Minnesota could be strong on Wednesday before the system finally gets the boot out of the region. The equivalent of a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place already.

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Hot Through The Fourth With Some Strong Storms
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

As we speed toward the Independence Day holiday on Tuesday (where has the year gone?!?), here are some stats for your BBQ over the next couple of days. 16% of the past July 4ths have had a high of at least 90F in the metro, with two reaching the century mark: 101F in 2012 and 100F in 1949. 41% have had measurable rainfall, but only three have had over an inch, including 2.27" in 1900.

While a few storms are possible late today into the overnight hours, a better chance for nature's fireworks is expected on the 4th - some of which may interrupt the man-made kind late in the evening. A few storms over this time period could also be severe, with mainly a hail and wind threat. We'll be hot as a firecracker in the 90s through Tuesday before highs below/closer to average return.

Despite that stretch of cool weather that we saw during the Spring - particularly in March and April - the first six months of 2023 have ended up tied for the 16th warmest first half of the year for MSP.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Hot. Late day storm. Wake up 72. High 95. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

INDEPENDENCE DAY: Nature's fireworks - some strong. Wake up 72. High 90. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering showers and storms. Wake up 66. High 77. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: No complaints. Some afternoon clouds. Wake up 59. High 78. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Very nice July day. Mainly sunny. Wake up 59. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a shower or two. Wake up 62. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Scattered showers and storms. Wake up 64. High 83. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 3rd

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 31 minutes, and 26 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 50 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Sunlight? July 24th (14 hours, 59 minutes, 22 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 3rd

1947: Tornadoes hit Marshall and Polk Counties.

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As we look at the Monday before the Independence Day holiday, a frontal boundary from the Southern Plains to the Northeast will help produce some storms. Another front from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest will do the same. Typical summer afternoon-driven storms will be possible in the Southeast. Several of the storms from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest and in the Mid-Atlantic could be on the severe side.

Some of the heaviest rain through Independence Day will be in the Northeast, where some areas could see upwards of 3" of rain.

As we look toward Independence Day, we will watch the potential of showers and storms across most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Some of the storms could be strong from the Front Range into the Upper Midwest, and across the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic.

As we look at a couple of the bigger firework displays across the country Tuesday, some storms will be possible in the evening in New York City, but mostly dry weather is expected in Washington D.C.

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Study shows significant decline of snow cover in the Northern hemisphere over the last half century

More from UC Santa Cruz: "Understanding snow cover trends is important because of the role that snow plays in the global energy balance. Snow's high albedo – the ability to reflect light – and insulating characteristics affects surface temperatures on a regional scale and thermal stability on a continent-wide scale. In the new study published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, researchers analyzed snow cover data gathered from weekly satellite flyovers between 1967 (when satellites became more common) and 2021, which was divided into grid sections for analysis. Of the grids that researchers determined had reliable data, they found that snow cover is declining in nearly twice as many grids as it is advancing. "In the Arctic regions, snow is going away more often than not – I think climatologists sort of suspected this," Lund said. "But it's also going away at the southern boundaries of the continents.""

Will Texas become too hot for humans?

More from the BBC: "Texas has warmed between one-half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. "In the coming decades … summers are likely to become increasingly hot and dry, creating problems for agriculture and possibly human health," warns the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It predicts that 70 years from now, the state will have three or four times as many days per year above 100F (38C) as it has today. The National Integrated Heat Health Information System's Climate Explorer tool also offers a worrying glimpse into Texas's future. It predicts that Austin and Travis County's average daily maximum temperature in June could rise to 99.7F (37.6C) between 2060 and 2090 if no steps are taken to mitigate the potentially crippling effects of climate change. Austin's Office of Sustainability's estimate is even higher with a summer average high temperature of 103.8F (39.9C) at the end of the century for the city."

With Plenty of Clean Energy, Brazil Aims for Green Hydrogen Export Market

More from Bloomberg: "The snake and armadillo-filled scrublands of Northeastern Brazil's Serra da Babilonia, or Hills of Babylon, are as stunning as a first-rate national park. It's here where renewable energy is transforming Brazil, and where the country's green hydrogen economy is getting off the ground. Wind developer Casa dos Ventos just installed 80 turbines. The towers churn out enough power for a small city, but that's not where it's going. The main buyer is chemicals producer Unigel, which will use it to split water molecules and make hydrogen at a port on Bahia's coast. "We see Brazil as a leader in the green hydrogen economy for one main reason: the availability of renewable energy," said Unigel Executive Director Luiz Felipe Fustaino. Unigel will turn the hydrogen into green ammonia, becoming Brazil's first exporter."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser