How are Minnesota’s winter festivals faring without a true winter?

The ice on Lake Ann was between 8 and 10 inches thick when Chanhassen leaders made the call: the annual February Festival, and its signature ice fishing competition, would be canceled for the second year in a row.

Festival organizers need 12 to 15 inches of ice to safely support the people and vehicles that set up the decades-old celebration. But forecasts of highs in the upper 40s in the days leading up to the event’s Feb. 3 start date forced organizers to abandon their plans.

“Our priority has to be safety,” said Priya Tandon, Chanhassen’s recreation manager. “I don’t think we ever expected to cancel last year and we certainly didn’t expect to cancel two years in a row.”

Communities across the metro area have had to adjust, postpone or altogether cancel their winter festivals as an unusually warm season has left most bodies of water without ice and their banks devoid of snow.

Edina canceled its Winter Ice Festival in early January, citing “uncooperative MN weather” on social media. Eden Prairie similarly postponed this month’s Winter Blast event.

“Event planners are monitoring the weather forecast for next week’s event and considering other options for family fun if the conditions are not conducive for outdoor winter activities,” Eden Prairie Communications Manager Joyce Lorenz said.

The warm weather also forced the U.S. Pond Hockey Championships to cancel its final contests.

This year’s Luminary Loppet will limit attendees to the shores of Minneapolis’ Lake of the Isles. Event organizers typically place art installations on the ice, where a series of beacons guide festivalgoers from one piece to the next.

Last year’s heavy snowfall and above-freezing temperatures made for uneven terrain, Loppet Foundation Executive Director Claire Wilson said, which required ticketholders to remain on dry land even though some of the festival’s features could be placed on the lake itself.

“This year, it’s not only the surface that’s dangerous but the ice integrity, as well,” Wilson said.

Volunteers managed to create about 2,000 luminaries last week — essentially candles encased in ice that comprise the various art installations the foundation places on the lake. Wilson said those building blocks are currently in a bunker with the hope that things cool down by Feb. 3.

The outlook isn’t looking favorable. The National Weather Service forecasts highs in the mid-30s throughout the weekend. On Wednesday, it could hit 45 degrees. Department of Natural Resources climatologist Pete Boulay says that while the unseasonably warm high temperatures make headlines, he’s equally concerned about the overnight lows.

“We’re about 20 degrees above normal,” Boulay said. “These conditions we see are really driven by overnight temperatures.”

While the Twin Cities had a handful of days with temperatures in the single digits in mid-January, Boulay said that’s especially late for lakes to begin developing ice. Usually by now, they’ll have frozen over weeks ago.

“We didn’t have a long season to build ice at all,” Boulay said.

It’s also incredibly difficult to predict how quickly ice will build or even melt. Every lake is different, Boulay said, and their rate of freezing and thawing depends on their depth, volume and how much of the surface is exposed to the sun. That makes it difficult for festival organizers to predict how much ice they’ll have to work with even if they have reliable weather forecasts.

“There’s just no way to predict when the ice will leave the lake,” Boulay said.

That’s unfortunate, festival organizers say, because so much of the region’s identity is built on the myriad ways snow and ice bring Minnesotans together. Even though the Loppet Foundation has managed to create enough snow to provide skiers with something to play with at Theodore Wirth Park, the loss of events such as the Luminary Loppet has left its mark on the organization.

“I do not think it’s hyperbole to say people are grief-stricken,” Wilson said. “I’ve heard so frequently from people who say they’re, just in general, sort of bereft. Being outside is so core to who we are.”

Tandon, the Chanhassen recreation director, said community organizations including the Rotary Club and the Boys and Girls Club count on the February Festival as a fundraising opportunity by selling concessions.

“It’s just such a great event for our community,” she said. “We’re all really bummed.”

A spokesperson for St. Paul’s Winter Carnival, meanwhile, said much of the event, which got underway Thursday, is moving forward as planned. The biggest difference is that festival organizers had to make the snow that sculptors will use to work their magic in the Vulcan Snow Park.

Sculptors were out in full force Friday morning, and some were optimistic that the warm weather would actually inspire a larger-than-usual turnout.

“Honestly, when it’s cold out, we get less visitors,” Heather Friedli said.

Alex Karwowski contributed to this story.