Often around the turn of the year I perform an act of pundit accountability, looking back on the previous year's columns to assess the things that I got wrong. For this January's edition, though, I'm going to take a different kind of backward glance, and try to answer one of the frequent questions I received when I wrote, last fall, about my experience with chronic illness: Namely, has being sick altered any of my views on health care policy?
It's a good question; the answer, like health policy itself, is complicated.
For an example of my pre-illness views, consider a column I wrote in 2013, in the midst of the endless Obamacare debates. Titled "What Health Insurance Doesn't Do," it looked at evidence from an Oregon study tracing the effects of a Medicaid expansion that happened via lottery, creating a genuine randomization in the population that had the chance to enroll.
The results, after a couple of years, showed that access to Medicaid helped people avoid "catastrophic expenditures" and reduced their depression rates. The program did not, however, seem to have much impact on recipients' physical health. This was a counterintuitive finding but not necessarily a surprising one: From a famous RAND experiment in the 1970s and early 1980s down to a recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper looking at the effects of insurance in India, it's common to get results suggesting that the relationship between health insurance spending and physical health is relatively weak.
With these findings in mind, my 2013 self warned against health insurance profligacy, on the grounds that if we try to provision everyone with comprehensive coverage, we'll probably end up encouraging overspending on unnecessary care. Instead, the ideal insurance system would cover genuinely catastrophic expenses, helping people avoid bankruptcy and the worst kind of mental stress — but avoiding the overtreatment and cost inflation that you get when you earmark too many public dollars for health and health alone.
I was healthy then; two years later I began my strange descent. And one part of the experience took those pre-illness views — I'd call them center-right with a libertarian flavor — and pushed them to the left.
This was the part of the experience where I was sick and had absolutely no idea what was wrong with me — which meant that I went from doctor to doctor, specialist to specialist, submitting to tests that succeeded only in ruling out various plausible diagnoses, without actually pinning down the source of all my blazing pain.
In these months I was given an object lesson in the ambiguities contained in terms like "overtreatment" and "unnecessary care." Because considering my ultimate diagnosis, all of these visits were a form of overtreatment. What I really had, though I didn't know it, was a tick-borne illness. Yet here I was undergoing tilt-table tests and going in for a CT scan and an endoscopy, running up a huge tab on my New York Times Co. insurance policy for tests and procedures that did nothing direct or immediate for my health.