How Minnesota House Republicans ended the DFL’s state government trifecta

Minnesota House Republicans raised more money than ever before, targeted their spending on a narrower list of races and made a concerted effort to get conservatives to vote early.

It paid off. Republicans put an end to the DFL’s trifecta control of government this week by bringing the state House to a rare 67-67 tie. Pending as many as two recounts in House races that Democrats narrowly led, neither party will hold a majority in the chamber for the first time since 1979.

It’s not exactly the control Republicans had hoped for, but a tied House will provide a check on the agenda of Democrats who still hold the state Senate and governor’s office. The parties must reach a power-sharing agreement to determine how the House will run.

“Our goal over the last two years has been to bring balance back into St. Paul … We have accomplished that goal,” House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, said at a news conference Wednesday.

Republicans across the country benefited from favorable tailwinds as President-elect Donald Trump resoundingly defeated Democrat Kamala Harris. But that wasn’t the whole story in Minnesota, where Republicans retained six state House seats in districts that were won by Harris.

“That sends a huge message that it was a Minnesota choice, it wasn’t even a national choice,” Demuth said in an interview Thursday.

Heading into this election, Minnesota Republicans had argued that Democrats overreached with too many spending increases and policy changes over the past two years. On the campaign trail, they emphasized that Democrats spent most of a historic state budget surplus and raised some taxes at a time when people were struggling with high prices.

House Republicans successfully defended every one of their seats in Tuesday’s election for the first time in a decade, blocking the DFL from flipping a single district. They swept every seat on the long-Democratic Iron Range, flipping a holdout district they hadn’t won since 1928. They also gained a Winona seat they hadn’t held since 1984 and flipped a seat in St. Peter.

House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, said the greater Minnesota losses reflect the state’s continued political realignment.

“Our rural areas are becoming increasingly red and our metro and suburban areas are becoming increasingly blue,” Hortman said at a Wednesday news conference. “And we see that this trend has really accelerated in the years that Trump has been on the ballot.”

House Majority Leader Jamie Long, DFL-Minneapolis, said the DFL fared as well as it could against a national Republican wave: “I think we overperformed a lot of expectations in a tough election for Democrats.”

Throughout the year, Republicans heard from voters at the doors and through polling that the economy was their number one issue, said Alicia Leiviska, campaign director for the House Republican Campaign Committee (HRCC).

“We asked questions of voters in different ways, as to not lead them into a particular opinion or answer, and every single time, the economy was the top issue,” Leiviska said.

House Republicans had their best fundraising year ever. The HRCC said it raised more than $3 million, as of Election Day. It focused its spending on a tighter list of competitive races than it did during the 2022 midterms, when Republicans failed to flip the House.

That year, the committee spent in 32 House races and dedicated just under 60% of its money to its top 10 targets. This year, it spent in only 21 races, putting 71% of its money toward its top 10.

Across those 21 races, GOP House candidates outperformed Trump by an average of about 3.2 percentage points, according to the HRCC. Republicans won six of their top 10 targeted House races.

Demuth said House Republicans were more disciplined this year, not spending on less competitive races that could have diluted their resources. They also had a strong ground game, she said, knocking on more than 422,000 doors.

Throughout the year, GOP candidates and organizers encouraged conservatives to embrace early absentee voting. Early voting has become a helpful tool for Minnesota political campaigns because they receive data on who has and hasn’t cast their ballots.

“You don’t need to be continuing to speak to a voter if they’ve already cast their ballot two or three weeks ago,” Leiviska said. “I think it just allows campaign dollars to go further; it allows the candidates to really hone in on who they’re speaking to, and it was beneficial.”

Republicans came just one seat short of winning control of the House. Democrats narrowly won a St. Cloud race that is now outside the threshold for an automatic recount. Meanwhile, a Shakopee race that DFL Rep. Brad Tabke led by just 13 votes is headed for a recount.

The GOP will likely target those two seats again in 2026, as well as other districts it lost by less than 1,000 votes.

“What that tells us is voters in those areas are not comfortable with the representation that they have,” Demuth said.