Eight billion dollars — the surplus announced in the state's latest budget forecast for the 2022-23 biennium — is an epic amount of money. We should use it to make an epic difference in the lives of the people of Minnesota.
The two most dangerous words in thinking about what the state should do with this massive surplus it announced last week are "fully fund."
"Fully fund" is code for spending more on what we are already doing. If all we do is fully fund what is already being done, we will be left with a more expensive government — but not necessarily a better or more effective one.
We have been spending more and more for decades, on health care without people actually getting healthier and on education without improving learning outcomes. And every dollar that is spent on those programs has powerful interests that will go all out to preserve what they have and get more, regardless of the outcome.
But these forecast surplus dollars — these billions — are not yet spoken for. No one has a claim on them — yet. And the amounts are huge. The $7.746 billion that the state reported is equivalent to adding 15% to its general fund. It is equivalent to adding a third to what we already spend on schools, an additional half to what we already spend on health and human services, doubling what we spend on higher education or tripling our spending on public safety.
And that is just the start. The state's forecast says that these resources will keep coming in the years to come.
Resources on this scale could be used to:
- Reduce infant mortality and eliminate racial gaps, to match the best in the world.
- Allow seniors to age at home for as long as possible.
- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 10% or more.
- Make every child school-ready by the time they enter kindergarten.
- Assure that every child makes up for the learning lost during COVID.
- Assure that every child is proficient at math and reading in grades three and eight and, in so doing, eliminate the achievement gaps among students.
- Assure that those who start high school or college finish and have the skills to succeed in today's economy.
- Assure shelter for every homeless person.
- Make every place safe for those who live there.
- Make broadband universal.
Achieving these things and more may sound impossible to many. We have been trying to do them for decades with little success. So how could it happen?