If a trade war comes, U.S. agriculture might be ‘on the losing side’

If the next president slaps new tariffs on imports from other countries, those trading partners will likely retaliate with their own tariffs that could cost the U.S. billions in lost agriculture exports.

That’s according to a recent analysis from North Dakota State University (NDSU) researchers who looked ahead at the possibility of a trade war to come based largely on former President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals. In a “worst-case scenario” that targets China with the highest tariffs, soybean exports could drop 67% — or more than $15 billion — since China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans.

Farmers in Minnesota could see soy exports fall by more than $1.3 billion and corn exports drop by $400 million as a result, with ripple effects across farm country.

“A substantial decline in exports, as projected under these scenarios, would lead to an oversupply in domestic markets, driving down farm prices and squeezing profit margins for farmers,” while potentially putting some out of business, the report concluded. “To cushion the blow to Midwest agriculture effectively, a new support program would require massive funding to cover the lost export revenue, potentially amounting to tens of billions of dollars annually.”

Bottom line: No matter the severity of any protectionist policies that a new administration actually implements, “in any trade conflict, agriculture is always on the losing side of things,” said Sandro Steinbach, director for agricultural policy and trade studies at NDSU and a co-author of the report.

The U.S. already has a widening gap between the amount of food imported vs. exported. Recent export declines mark a stark reversal from decades of export dominance, and it stems in part from the previous trade conflict with China that saw Brazil become a key soybean supplier.

With strong harvests around the world and a strong U.S. dollar adding to the trade troubles, market access has become a key issue, one Arden Hills-based Land O’Lakes took to Washington last year.

While tariffs might help some industries, no scenario Steinbach looked at would boost ag.

“These projected trade losses pose significant challenges for Midwest agriculture, which relies heavily on exporting these critical commodities to foreign markets,” the study found. “The Midwest’s agricultural economy is deeply integrated into global markets, particularly for soybeans and corn.”

Mark Schultz, senior grain marketing analyst with Northstar Commodity, said U.S. agriculture is already “in a bad predicament right now” that started in 2018.

“If Trump wins, the odds favor tariffs will get stronger, and trade negotiations between [U.S. and China] will get a little bit worse,” he said at Farm Fest in early August. “If Harris gets in, I’m not sure on that one. I’m not sure what would happen.”

Steinbach said his research was “very apolitical” and noted the Harris campaign has promoted elements of protectionism.

“All political directions have risks to them,” he said. If tariffs come to fruition as Trump has promised, however, “the agriculture landscape will change considerably and become even more consolidated and capital-driven than it already is.”

Schultz said the “damage has already been done” from the last trade conflict.

“Agriculture historically does better when a Democrat is in office than a Republican,” he added. “That’s just how it plays out.”