Every two years around this time in October, political operatives, lobbyists and their clients, state workers and everyone else whose lives will be most affected by the November legislative election, hunt around for scraps of information and data and even sheer gossip that might give them clues about how it will turn out.
If history is guide, DFL will pick up seats in Legislature this year
October 15, 2016 at 9:41PM
A key problem: Legislative districts can be difficult to poll, the lawmakers and their challengers often unknown to voters other than as vaguely familiar names accused of bad things in glossy mail pieces. And, voters tend to make up their minds about legislative races late in the campaign.
Enter Brian Rice, longtime DFL lobbyist and son of a legendary legislator, who has his own method: History.
He acknowledges that predictions based on a relatively small sample — the Legislative Reference Library's online records go back to 1951 — provide an imperfect map, but a map nevertheless.
"To the extent that history is a guide, this is the history we've got," he says, brandishing several pages of handwritten notes, calculations scrawled on lined paper that show the legislative balance from one year to the next.
He calls it, "Weather forecasting without Doppler radar."
So what happens in Minnesota legislative races in which there is also a presidential race?
The DFL averages a three-seat gain in the House. This is not surprising, given the party's greater success turning out its voters in presidential years, and the state's history of going for the Democrat in the presidential race.
In two presidential elections since 1952, there's been no change in the House, while in three contests — 1984, 1988 and 1996 — Republicans gained seats.
If you exclude the years of no change or Republican pickups, the average DFL gain was 4.5 seats.
A 4.5-seat gain would give the DFL 65 or 66 seats this year, shy of the 68 needed for majority. (There are 134 House seats.)
Senate elections have only been lined up with presidential cycles since 1972, with the DFL gaining an average three seats in White House years.
More recent elections have proved more volatile, with the DFL picking up 14 House seats in the presidential year 2004 and 10 in 2012. On the flip side, Republicans in recent off-year elections won 25 seats in 2010 and 11 in 2014.
Like the House, the Senate has been prone to volatility, with Republicans winning a whopping 16 seats in 2010, before the DFL came back to win 12 seats in 2012.
Political scientists argue politics has become increasingly nationalized in recent years, with state electoral results less reliant on local issues and more based on national political trends.
President Bush is down in the polls in 2006, and Democrats take Congress, but also the Minnesota House.
The Tea Party wave and bad Democratic turnout helps Republicans take the U.S. House in 2010, but also the Minnesota House and Senate.
As for this year? It's anyone's guess.

J. Patrick Coolican • 651-925-5042 patrick.coolican@startribune.com Twitter: @jpcoolican
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