Every two years around this time in October, political operatives, lobbyists and their clients, state workers and everyone else whose lives will be most affected by the November legislative election, hunt around for scraps of information and data and even sheer gossip that might give them clues about how it will turn out.
A key problem: Legislative districts can be difficult to poll, the lawmakers and their challengers often unknown to voters other than as vaguely familiar names accused of bad things in glossy mail pieces. And, voters tend to make up their minds about legislative races late in the campaign.
Enter Brian Rice, longtime DFL lobbyist and son of a legendary legislator, who has his own method: History.
He acknowledges that predictions based on a relatively small sample — the Legislative Reference Library's online records go back to 1951 — provide an imperfect map, but a map nevertheless.
"To the extent that history is a guide, this is the history we've got," he says, brandishing several pages of handwritten notes, calculations scrawled on lined paper that show the legislative balance from one year to the next.
He calls it, "Weather forecasting without Doppler radar."
So what happens in Minnesota legislative races in which there is also a presidential race?
The DFL averages a three-seat gain in the House. This is not surprising, given the party's greater success turning out its voters in presidential years, and the state's history of going for the Democrat in the presidential race.
