Warm weather, Easter shopping and a growing sense of consumer confidence helped the nation's retailers ring up strong sales in March, easily surpassing analysts' estimates.
The nation's biggest chain stores posted a 9 percent jump in same-store sales compared with a year ago, the strongest gain since March 1999, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Several retailers, including Minneapolis-based Target Corp., raised their earnings forecasts.
Caution remained a watchword amid the glowing numbers, however, as comparisons to last year's widespread losses were relatively easy and still-high unemployment continues to put a chill on consumer spending.
"The key to the long term is: How do you get these 15 million people employed again?" said David Brennan, co-director Institute for Retailing Excellence at the University of St. Thomas. Depressed wages and shorter work weeks remain a drag, he noted.
Target joined at least 15 national retailers posting double-digit gains in same-store sales, a key financial measure of sales among stores open a year or more. Sales at Target increased 10.3 percent, driven by what CEO Gregg Steinhafel described in a statement as "particular strength" in apparel sales.
A thaw in discretionary spending, including clothes, is a hopeful sign. Target predicted its combined sales in March and April will increase 3 to 5 percent. The retailer said it expects first-quarter earnings now to rise 10 cents or more above its previous 74 cent estimate.
Target said sales of shoes and women's apparel were especially strong, and that staples such as food, health care and beauty items continue to outsell housewares and home decor.
